Bessire: QB Ranks and Projections
Projections for every ranked quarterback are below. Players are ranked based on PredictionMachine.com's 2013 projected statistics for what each player would be expected to do as a 16 game starter on a totally average NFL team against a completely average NFL schedule. Read more about how rankings and projections are done (also includes 2012 quarterback rankings and projections). See biographical and statistical data on each QB prospect here.
This year, I have added an impact score (0 - 10 scale) for each player that is a relative value based on the projections that can put players in context across positions and draft classes. In the score, a seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position as a rookie; an eight or above can be expected to start and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, standout player who could star. As a matter of context, at this time last year, using the same process leveraged for 2013 below (independent of actual drafting teams), the top five quarterbacks last season had scores of: Robert Griffin III (9.5), Andrew Luck (9.1), Russell Wilson (8.5), Brandon Weeden (8.0) and Nick Foles (8.0).
In other words, Geno Smith (8.2), would have ranked fourth on last season's board and is significantly behind RGIII and Luck in value. Smith's best comparison from my ten years of analysis is Andy Dalton. Based on his collegiate performance and measurables, Smith fits somewhere along a spectrum that ranges from Packers' backup Graham Harrell (on the low end) to Russell Wilson (on the high end).
As Matt Richner and I have been discussing, Landry Jones is the real intriguing piece to this draft class. Matt likens him to Kurt Warner due to his arm, passing ability and lack of mobility. For what it's worth, Jones' score (7.5) is just a tenth of a point lower than former Oklahoma Sooner Sam Bradford. Unfortunately for those looking for a quarterback in this class, we do not necessarily think either Bradford or Jones is or ever will be an above average NFL quarterback.
Some players with lower scorers, yet higher variance (potential "boom or bust" players) include: E.J. Manuel, Tyler Bray, Tyler Wilson, Tino Sunseri, Matt Scott, Sean Renfree and Jordan Rodgers. By 2016, most of these players will be out of the league. However, rather it be scheme fit, coaching, luck and/or motivation, one or two of the players in this group could also be a quality starter in 2016. Manuel is the most likely of this list and falls just behind Matt Barkley.
I have not mentioned Mike Glennon yet. His floor and ceiling seem to be as a career backup. For what it's worth though, from strictly a scoring perspective, Glennon (6.7) is tied with Ryan Tannehill from 2012 and is almost a full point ahead of our 2011 projection for Blaine Gabbert.
QB 2013 Projected Pass Data
QB 2013 Projected Rush Data