Bracket Odds (Sweet 16)

Last Updated: 8/19/2014 10:04 PM ET
2014 Tournament Pages:
Bracket Odds (Sweet 16 Update)
Thursday (3/27) Picks (all games)
Friday (3/28) Picks (all games)
Bracket Simulator
Player Pick'em Contest

The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats, to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NCAA tournament. Each tournament is played individually, with the team that wins the game in that instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.

Bracket Odds (based on 2014 NCAA Tournament played 50,000 times):
Region Seed Team Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
South 1 Florida 63.8% 51.7% 32.2% 19.5%
South 4 UCLA 36.2% 25.6% 12.6% 6.0%
South 11 Dayton 45.8% 9.9% 2.9% 0.8%
South 10 Stanford 54.2% 12.8% 4.0% 1.2%
East 1 Virginia 39.3% 25.4% 12.2% 5.8%
East 4 Michigan St. 60.7% 43.1% 24.7% 14.0%
East 3 Iowa St. 55.4% 18.9% 7.3% 2.8%
East 7 UCONN 44.6% 12.5% 4.1% 1.4%
West 1 Arizona 61.0% 31.3% 13.3% 5.7%
West 4 San Diego St. 39.0% 15.2% 4.8% 1.6%
West 6 Baylor 49.2% 25.9% 10.8% 4.6%
West 2 Wisconsin 50.8% 27.6% 11.7% 5.2%
Midwest 8 Kentucky 26.6% 12.0% 5.4% 2.0%
Midwest 4 Louisville 73.4% 47.5% 32.2% 19.4%
Midwest 11 Tennessee 37.3% 11.3% 4.9% 1.6%
Midwest 2 Michigan 62.7% 29.2% 16.8% 8.5%


2014 Tournament Pages:
Bracket Odds (Sweet 16 Update)
Thursday (3/27) Picks (all games)
Friday (3/28) Picks (all games)
Bracket Simulator
Player Pick'em Contest