Bracket Odds - 2018

Last Updated: 3/17/2018 1:33 AM ET


2018 Tournament Pages:
Thursday Picks
Friday Picks

Bracket Analysis
Bracket Odds
Predictalated Bracket
Bracket Simulator

The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats, to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NCAA tournament. Each tournament is played individually, with the team that wins the game in that instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.

Printable Bracket

Bracket Odds (based on 2018 NCAA Tournament played 50,000 times):

Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
South 1 Virginia - 98.9% 89.6% 62.3% 42.6% 27.9% 14.2%
South 16 UMBC - 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South 8 Creighton - 63.5% 7.7% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
South 9 Kansas St. - 36.5% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
South 5 Kentucky - 68.4% 35.4% 11.8% 5.6% 2.4% 0.7%
South 12 Davidson - 31.6% 12.0% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
South 4 Arizona - 84.0% 49.6% 21.3% 11.9% 6.1% 2.1%
South 13 Buffalo - 16.0% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South 6 Miami (FL) - 53.2% 16.9% 4.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
South 11 Loyola (IL) - 46.8% 14.1% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
South 3 Tennessee - 92.2% 67.6% 29.6% 9.7% 3.8% 1.1%
South 14 Wright St. - 7.8% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South 7 Nevada - 49.1% 12.0% 5.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
South 10 Texas - 51.0% 14.8% 6.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
South 2 Cincinnati - 94.2% 72.2% 50.8% 25.6% 14.5% 6.4%
South 15 Georgia St. - 5.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
West 1 Xavier - 97.1% 62.6% 32.9% 13.5% 4.5% 1.4%
West 16 Texas Southern 65.0% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West 16 UNC-Central 35.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West 8 Missouri - 60.8% 24.7% 9.9% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1%
West 9 Fla. St. - 39.2% 12.6% 4.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
West 5 Ohio State - 71.6% 26.4% 11.8% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2%
West 12 SD St. - 28.4% 6.1% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
West 4 Gonzaga - 86.0% 62.7% 38.5% 17.6% 6.7% 2.3%
West 13 UNC-Greensboro - 14.0% 4.8% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
West 6 Houston - 66.1% 27.6% 9.3% 4.5% 1.3% 0.4%
West 11 San Diego St. - 33.9% 9.6% 2.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
West 3 Michigan - 89.1% 60.5% 26.5% 15.8% 8.2% 2.7%
West 14 Montana - 10.9% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West 7 Texas A&M - 59.3% 10.5% 3.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
West 10 Providence - 40.7% 5.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
West 2 UNC - 97.4% 83.8% 57.3% 39.1% 21.2% 10.2%
West 15 Lipscomb - 2.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
East 1 Villanova - 98.6% 87.4% 64.1% 45.9% 27.9% 19.2%
East 16 Radford 69.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East 16 Long Island 30.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East 8 Va. Tech. - 46.0% 6.2% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
East 9 Alabama - 54.0% 6.4% 2.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
East 5 W. Va. - 81.0% 46.7% 15.7% 8.0% 2.9% 1.1%
East 12 Murray St. - 19.0% 5.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
East 4 Wichita St. - 86.9% 45.7% 15.3% 7.4% 2.7% 0.9%
East 13 Marshall - 13.1% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East 6 Florida - 67.8% 37.0% 12.9% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2%
East 11 St. Bonaventure 30.7% 5.9% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East 11 UCLA 69.3% 26.3% 11.1% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
East 3 Texas Tech - 84.6% 47.6% 16.3% 4.0% 1.0% 0.3%
East 14 SFA - 15.4% 2.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East 7 Arkansas - 42.1% 9.4% 3.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
East 10 Butler - 57.9% 14.5% 6.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
East 2 Purdue - 96.5% 75.6% 57.0% 27.1% 13.1% 6.8%
East 15 CS-Fullerton - 3.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
Midwest 1 Kansas - 94.6% 71.9% 53.9% 20.9% 9.3% 4.1%
Midwest 16 Pennsylvania - 5.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 8 Seton Hall - 58.3% 17.0% 8.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Midwest 9 NC State - 41.7% 10.1% 4.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Midwest 5 Clemson - 66.2% 38.7% 14.0% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Midwest 12 New Mexico St. - 33.8% 14.4% 3.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 4 Auburn - 83.4% 44.2% 15.9% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1%
Midwest 13 Charleston - 16.6% 2.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 6 TCU - 60.3% 14.4% 3.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Midwest 11 Syracuse 53.1% 20.7% 2.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 11 Arizona St. 46.9% 19.1% 3.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 3 Michigan St. - 95.3% 78.6% 34.6% 24.0% 12.3% 6.7%
Midwest 14 Bucknell - 4.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 7 RI - 53.0% 5.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 10 Oklahoma - 47.0% 5.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 2 Duke - 97.2% 89.3% 59.6% 45.2% 26.8% 18.2%
Midwest 15 Iona - 2.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2018 Tournament Pages:
Thursday Picks
Friday Picks

Bracket Analysis
Bracket Odds
Predictalated Bracket
Bracket Simulator

Tournament History Highlight: Results have been consistently dominant in the NCAA Tournament in years past. Over 8 NCAA Tournaments at PredictionMachine.com, featured, "normal" or better picks (anything with greater than 57% confidence) are 76-40 (66% ATS), while the top play each day is 57-30 (66% ATS). This includes being 39-18 (67% ATS) on normal or better picks and 14-2 on Top Plays of the Day all-time in the First Round (first Thursday and Friday each tournament)

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