Bracket Odds

Last Updated: 8/19/2014 10:04 PM ET

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The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats, to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NCAA tournament. Each tournament is played individually, with the team that wins the game in that instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.

Bracket Odds (based on 2012 NCAA Tournament played 50,000 times):


Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
South 1 Kentucky - 96.9% 81.5% 56.8% 46.2% 31.2% 21.0%
South 16 Miss. Val. St. 36.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South 16 W. Kentucky 63.7% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South 8 Iowa St. - 48.7% 8.7% 3.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
South 9 UCONN - 51.3% 9.3% 3.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2%
South 5 Wichita St. - 79.4% 45.8% 17.8% 12.4% 6.3% 3.1%
South 12 VCU - 20.6% 6.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
South 4 Indiana - 78.7% 43.1% 17.3% 11.4% 5.8% 2.7%
South 13 New Mexico St. - 21.3% 5.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
South 6 UNLV - 58.9% 24.7% 11.0% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1%
South 11 Colorado - 41.1% 13.7% 5.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
South 3 Baylor - 65.3% 44.2% 25.2% 7.8% 3.0% 1.1%
South 14 SD St. - 34.7% 17.4% 7.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
South 7 Notre Dame - 53.5% 21.6% 9.7% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%
South 10 Xavier - 46.5% 17.7% 7.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
South 2 Duke - 74.9% 50.5% 31.0% 10.5% 4.5% 1.8%
South 15 Lehigh - 25.1% 10.1% 3.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
West 1 Michigan St. - 92.3% 60.2% 41.6% 24.5% 12.5% 6.8%
West 16 Long Island - 7.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West 8 Memphis - 64.3% 27.8% 16.8% 8.6% 3.7% 1.6%
West 9 St. Louis - 35.7% 11.0% 5.1% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2%
West 5 New Mexico - 66.9% 34.5% 12.9% 5.7% 2.0% 0.7%
West 12 Long Beach St. - 33.1% 12.0% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
West 4 Louisville - 75.9% 45.6% 19.2% 8.7% 3.3% 1.3%
West 13 Davidson - 24.1% 7.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
West 6 Murray St. - 55.8% 23.0% 6.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%
West 11 Colorado St. - 44.2% 16.8% 4.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
West 3 Marquette - 62.3% 40.6% 14.2% 5.0% 1.5% 0.5%
West 14 Iona 53.6% 21.9% 11.6% 3.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
West 14 BYU 46.4% 15.8% 8.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
West 7 Florida - 69.5% 29.9% 19.5% 9.4% 4.1% 1.8%
West 10 Virginia - 30.5% 6.9% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1%
West 2 Missouri - 93.6% 62.4% 46.9% 29.7% 16.9% 9.9%
West 15 Norfolk St. - 6.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
East 1 Syracuse - 83.4% 57.7% 33.1% 14.0% 6.6% 2.6%
East 16 UNC - Ash - 16.6% 4.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
East 8 Kansas St. - 72.9% 30.9% 13.3% 4.1% 1.5% 0.4%
East 9 Southern Miss - 27.1% 6.6% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
East 5 Vanderbilt - 63.6% 31.2% 15.9% 5.5% 2.3% 0.8%
East 12 Harvard - 36.4% 13.3% 4.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
East 4 Wisconsin - 81.4% 50.4% 29.2% 12.1% 5.8% 2.1%
East 13 Montana - 18.6% 5.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
East 6 Cincinnati - 46.5% 23.7% 5.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2%
East 11 Texas - 53.5% 28.8% 7.5% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3%
East 3 Fla. St. - 63.3% 33.0% 8.7% 3.6% 1.3% 0.3%
East 14 St. Bonaventure - 36.7% 14.4% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
East 7 Gonzaga - 57.4% 11.2% 5.5% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
East 10 W. Va. - 42.6% 7.0% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
East 2 Ohio State - 93.6% 80.0% 66.7% 49.9% 34.1% 19.5%
East 15 Loyola (MD) - 6.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
Midwest 1 UNC - 89.2% 64.4% 49.7% 31.3% 17.3% 8.5%
Midwest 16 Lamar 54.9% 6.4% 2.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 16 Vermont 45.1% 4.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 8 Creighton - 57.4% 21.2% 11.9% 5.3% 1.9% 0.7%
Midwest 9 Alabama - 42.6% 11.1% 5.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
Midwest 5 Temple - 52.1% 26.5% 8.7% 3.2% 0.9% 0.3%
Midwest 12 California 59.3% 30.7% 16.2% 5.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
Midwest 12 S. Florida 40.7% 17.2% 7.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Midwest 4 Michigan - 71.5% 40.1% 14.5% 5.7% 1.8% 0.6%
Midwest 13 Ohio - 28.5% 9.8% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Midwest 6 San Diego St. - 41.9% 12.8% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Midwest 11 NC State - 58.1% 22.1% 7.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
Midwest 3 Georgetown - 53.1% 35.7% 15.6% 7.1% 2.7% 0.9%
Midwest 14 Belmont - 46.9% 29.4% 12.4% 5.6% 2.0% 0.6%
Midwest 7 Saint Mary's - 40.7% 11.6% 4.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
Midwest 10 Purdue - 59.3% 23.5% 12.4% 5.6% 2.0% 0.8%
Midwest 2 Kansas - 81.4% 57.4% 41.2% 25.4% 13.6% 6.7%
Midwest 15 Detroit - 18.6% 7.5% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%

Picks Pages:
Bracket Odds (free) Predictalated Bracket (free) Bracket Analysis (free)
First Four: Tuesday Picks Wednesday Picks
March 15 (Thursday, Round 1): Predictalator Picks (All 16 games) Paul's Picks (Top 4 Plays)
March 16 (Friday, Round 1): Predictalator Picks (All 16 games) Paul's Picks (Top 4 Plays)
Customize the Predictalator - Play the Games with Any Lines
Buy Picks