NBA Playoff Probabilities (04/06/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
NBA Playoff Probabilities – Odds to win the NBA Championship



The NBA Playoffs are just around the corner. What does the postseason have in store for your favorite team?

Each week, we will simulate the rest of the regular season and playoffs 50,000 times with updated player and team statistical information to provide up-to-date projected records, standings, playoff probabilities and odds to win the Larry O'Brien Trophy for each team in the NBA.

Top storylines:

Golden State is the best team in the NBA. That statement has been true for much of the regular season but the Warriors made it official by clinching home court advantage throughout the playoffs. That is especially good for the Dubs as Golden State has a fantastic 35-2 record at home. The Warriors' title odds increased nearly ten percent after clinching home court. Golden State is a resounding favorite (37%) to win the NBA title.

This weekend we saw undefeated Kentucky fall in the Final Four, like the Wildcats, the Warriors are beatable. The Spurs ended the Warriors twelve game winning streak on Sunday. Kawhi Leonard led the way with 26 points and seven steals. San Antonio has won 17 of its last 20 games. The surging Spurs have the fifth best title odds and a five percent chance to repeat.

Russell Westbrook had another triple double but James Harden dropped 41 points on the Thunder to win the showdown between top MVP candidates. OKC is now just a half game up on New Orleans for the final playoff spot in the West. Our +650 bet on the Thunder to miss the playoffs is starting to look pretty good.

The race for the seventh and eighth seeds in the East is still a mess. Brooklyn and Miami (even after losing four in a row) are the only teams with greater than a 50 percent chance of reaching the postseason. Boston (34%), Indiana (27%) and Charlotte (15%) are all lurking.

2015 NBA Playoff Probabilities

Team Playoff% Conf. Quarters Conf. Semis Conf. Finals Finals
Golden State Warriors 100.0 87.1 66.4 48.1 37.3
Cleveland Cavaliers 100.0 88.4 50.3 36.4 15.8
Los Angeles Clippers 100.0 69.1 39.7 21.8 14.4
Atlanta Hawks 100.0 85.5 41.0 28.1 9.7
San Antonio Spurs 100.0 54.4 25.6 9.4 5.2
Dallas Mavericks 100.0 50.5 25.3 8.1 4.1
Toronto Raptors 100.0 61.0 32.3 12.5 3.4
Chicago Bulls 100.0 67.5 33.6 11.6 2.4
Portland Trail Blazers 100.0 44.8 16.2 4.8 2.4
Washington Wizards 100.0 49.4 27.5 8.8 1.9
Houston Rockets 100.0 45.2 11.0 3.7 1.7
Memphis Grizzlies 100.0 35.9 11.9 3.1 1.2
Oklahoma City Thunder 66.0 8.6 2.7 0.8 0.2
Milwaukee Bucks 99.7 21.1 6.2 0.7 0.1
Miami Heat 56.6 9.8 4.0 0.9 0.1
New Orleans Pelicans 33.8 4.3 1.2 0.3 0.1
Brooklyn Nets 68.6 7.8 2.3 0.4 0.0
Boston Celtics 33.5 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.0
Indiana Pacers 27.2 4.0 1.4 0.3 0.0
Charlotte Hornets 14.5 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
Phoenix Suns 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denver Nuggets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit Pistons 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Los Angeles Lakers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota Timberwolves 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
New York Knicks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Orlando Magic 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Philadelphia 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sacramento Kings 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Utah Jazz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0