NBA Playoff Probabilities (03/09/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
NBA Playoff Probabilities – Odds to win the NBA Championship



The finish line is in sight and the 82 game NBA regular season marathon is coming to an end. So close to the end, is your favorite team in position to win the title?

Each week, we will simulate the rest of the regular season and playoffs 50,000 times with updated player and team statistical information to provide up-to-date projected records, standings, playoff probabilities and odds to win the Larry O'Brien Trophy for each team in the NBA.

Top storylines:

Can anyone beat the Warriors at home? Golden State has won six in a row in Oakland. Stephen Curry and crew have only dropped two games on their home court. If the playoffs started today the title would go through Golden State, our most likely NBA Champion (22.8%).

Russell Westbrook has five triple doubles in six games. Westbrook, the NBA's leading scorer, has averaged 33.1 points, 10.1 rebounds and 11.2 assist per game over a ten game span. The Thunder are 91% likely to make the playoffs and have the fourth best title odds.

Just when you started to doubt the champs, the Spurs go on a winning streak. San Antonio is fourth in our Power Rankings, one of three teams to be top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Who wants the final two Eastern Conference playoff spots? Six teams (Heat, Hornets, Pacers, nets, Celtics, and Pistons) are separated by five games. Of those teams, Indiana (75.9%) has the best chance of reaching the postseason followed by Charlotte (56.6%). The rest of the teams are less than 50% likely to play after the 82nd game of the season.

NBA Playoff Probabilities

Team Playoff% Conf. Quarters Conf. Semis Conf. Finals Finals
Golden State Warriors 100.0 69.8 48.0 32.7 22.8
Cleveland Cavaliers 100.0 85.6 55.4 40.6 20.2
Atlanta Hawks 100.0 82.3 42.8 27.6 10.9
Oklahoma City Thunder 91.0 46.2 28.7 15.2 9.8
Memphis Grizzlies 100.0 62.1 28.8 15.7 9.6
San Antonio Spurs 99.7 54.6 29.3 12.7 7.5
Los Angeles Clippers 99.9 55.9 27.1 11.4 5.9
Houston Rockets 100.0 52.2 21.3 8.0 4.0
Toronto Raptors 100.0 63.8 29.8 11.0 3.1
Washington Wizards 100.0 59.5 33.3 11.5 2.9
Indiana Pacers 75.9 23.9 12.3 4.2 1.0
Portland Trail Blazers 99.8 32.0 9.0 2.5 0.9
Dallas Mavericks 97.5 25.6 7.4 1.8 0.8
Chicago Bulls 100.0 40.2 12.4 2.5 0.4
Milwaukee Bucks 98.0 24.8 7.5 1.2 0.2
Charlotte Hornets 56.6 9.6 3.1 0.6 0.1
Miami Heat 46.8 7.3 2.5 0.6 0.1
New Orleans Pelicans 9.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Boston Celtics 9.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Phoenix Suns 2.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Brooklyn Nets 12.6 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Detroit Pistons 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Utah Jazz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sacramento Kings 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Orlando Magic 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denver Nuggets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Los Angeles Lakers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota Timberwolves 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Philadelphia 76ers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
New York Knicks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0