NBA Playoff Probabilities (02/04/15)
NBA Playoff Probabilities – Odds to win the NBA Finals
Get out of here NFL, it's basketball season!
This is the time of year where everything in the NBA begins to revolve around the postseason. Will your favorite team be playing after the 82nd game and are they legitimate title contenders?
Each week, we will simulate the rest of the regular season and playoffs 50,000 times with updated player and team statistical information to provide up-to-date projected records, standings, playoff probabilities and odds to win the Larry O'Brien Trophy for each team in the NBA.
Golden State is sitting pretty atop the Western Conference with the best record in the NBA. The Warriors are the only team in the league that ranks in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. A tremendous defense and an explosive offense has the Warriors as the favorites to win the NBA Championship.
Oklahoma City has lost four of its last six games. The Thunder are currently tenth in the Western Conference standings, three games behind Phoenix for the final playoff spot. With a healthy Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, OKC is No. 9 in our Power Rankings, the sixth best team in the West. Yet OKC has just a 56.2% chance to reach the postseason.
The Spurs dynasty is over. That's what some pundits were saying after San Antonio went 9-10 in the month of December. The defending champions flipped the script with a 10-4 record in January. The Spurs are currently the 7th seed in the West, near locks to make the playoffs (97.5%) and have a 5.9% chance to repeat.
What do you need to know about Atlanta's 19-game winning streak, besides that it was snapped by New Orleans on Monday? The Hawks have become one of the league's most balanced teams. Atlanta is one of just four squads in the NBA to rank in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Hawks improbable run has increased their playoff odds from 6.5% (before the season started) to 100%.
The Hawks are legit but the East still belongs to King James. The Cavs are on an 11-game winning streak and sit 5th in the Eastern Conference standings. During the streak Cleveland has outscored opponents by 13.3 points per 100 possessions, the best net efficiency in the NBA. LeBron and company have the third best odds to win the NBA Championship and the best in the East.
NBA Playoff Probabilities
|Eastern Conference - Atlantic||Wins||Losses||Proj Wins||Proj Losses||Playoffs%||Finals SU Win%|
|New York Knicks||10||39||19.8||63.2||0.0||0.0|
|Eastern Conference - Central||Wins||Losses||Proj Wins||Proj Losses||Playoffs%||Finals SU Win%|
|Eastern Conference - Southeast||Wins||Losses||Proj Wins||Proj Losses||Playoffs%||Finals SU Win%|
|Western Conference - Pacific||Wins||Losses||Proj Wins||Proj Losses||Playoffs%||Finals SU Win%|
|Golden State Warriors||38||8||62.3||19.7||100.0||17.5|
|Los Angeles Clippers||33||16||54.2||27.8||99.7||12.8|
|Los Angeles Lakers||13||35||25.3||56.7||0.0||0.0|
|Western Conference - Northwest||Wins||Losses||Proj Wins||Proj Losses||Playoffs%||Finals SU Win%|
|San Antonio Spurs||30||18||51.6||30.4||97.5||5.9|
|New Orleans Pelicans||26||22||43.1||38.9||13.9||0.0|
|Western Conference - Southwest||Wins||Losses||Proj Wins||Proj Losses||Playoffs%||Finals SU Win%|
|Portland Trail Blazers||33||16||53.4||29.6||99.3||3.2|
|Oklahoma City Thunder||24||24||45.8||36.2||56.2||2.6|