NBA Live (06/19/13)

By John Ewing

A look at game changing plays in Game 6 of the NBA Finals utilizing Live ScoreCaster.

LeBron lost his crown (headband) but not his cool as he rallied Miami to a fourth quarter comeback and an OT victory. No headband, no problem. LeBron finished with 32 points, 11 rebounds, and 11 assists, his 11th postseason triple double. Below we look at game changing plays in Game 6 utilizing Live ScoreCaster.

To view the Live ScoreCaster for Game 6 of Heat/Spurs click here.

Heat vs. Spurs

  • Miami’s 103-100 victory forces Game 7; there have been 112 Game 7's in NBA history, the home team has won 79.5% of the time.
  • Down 10 points entering the 4th quarter the Heat only had a 16.9% chance of winning.
  • Before Ray Allen’s corner 3 to tie the game Miami only had a 17.9% chance of winning.
  • Miami has now won 13 consecutive games following a loss.
  • Game 7 line: Heat: -6, Total: 189.5

Twitter reaction to LeBron losing his headband

GameChanger – Spurs’ missed free throws

Manu Ginobili and Kawhi Leonard both missed free throws late in the 4th that could have sealed Miami’s fate.

With 0:28 left in the 4th, Ginobili misses the first of two free throws but converts on the second giving San Antonio a 94-89 lead and making them 84.9% likely to win. Had Manu made both shots from the charity stripe the Spurs win percentage jumps to 90.3%.

With 0:19 left in the 4th, Leonard makes only one of two free throws giving San Antonio a 3 point lead and an 82.1% chance to win. Had Leonard made both free throws and the Spurs were leading by 4 points, San Antonio would have been 86.3% likely to win the game.

GameChanger – Runs by both teams

11-0 run to close out the 2nd quarter by the Spurs increased their odds of winning from 27.9% to 52.4%.

9-0 run by the Spurs starting with 5:39 left in the 3rd increased San Antonio’s chances of winning from 46.1% to 83.2%.

10-2 run by the Heat sparked by LeBron’s late free throws in the 3rd quarter improved Miami’s win percentage from 9.9% to 27.7%.

7-2 run starting with a LeBron dunk with 9:00 left in the 4th gives Miami their first lead since late in the 2nd quarter. The scoring outburst improves Miami’s winning percentage from 21.9% to 61.9%.

8-0 run by the Spurs starting with 1:27 left in the 4th improves San Antonio’s chances of winning from 27.7% to 88.4%.

GameChanger – It was over when…

Chris Bosh blocked Danny Green. In the previous four games the winner became 99% likely to win with at least 4:30 left in the 4th.

Live ScoreCaster allows you to view current scores and play-by-play as well as live, updating projections from 50,000 simulations of the remaining time in each NBA game. Live ScoreCaster is totally free and available at PredictionMachine.com and for download on iTunes