NBA Live (06/17/13)

By John Ewing

A look at game changing plays in Game 5 of the NBA Finals utilizing Live ScoreCaster.

Manu Ginobili made his first start of the season and broke out of a Finals slump (7.5 points on 34.5% shooting) by scoring a season high 24 points and adding 10 dimes. Danny Green continued to terrorize the Heat from behind the arch making six three-pointers and breaking the Finals record set by Ray Allen. San Antonio dominated Miami offensively, as they were the first team to shoot 60% in a finals game in four years, and have pushed the Heat to the brink of elimination as the series returns to South Beach. Below we look at game changing plays in Game 5 utilizing Live ScoreCaster.

To view the Live ScoreCaster for Game 5 of Heat/Spurs click here.

Spurs vs. Heat

  • The Spurs 114-104 victory gives them a 3-2 series lead, the fourth straight game decided by double digits.
  • In the NBA Finals, when the series was tied 2-2, the winner of Game 5 went on to win the title 74% of the time.
  • Miami has won 12 consecutive games following a loss, have not had consecutive losses since January 8-10th.
  • Early line for Game 6, Heat -7.

Series Odds

Team Wins Series% in 6 Games% in 7 Games%
San Antonio Spurs 47.9% 27.8% 20.1%
Miami Heat 52.1% 0.0% 52.1%

Click here for the original projected series results.

GameChanger – Danny Green’s 3-pointers

Danny Green, shooting 65.8% on 38 attempts from behind the arch, broke Ray Allen’s NBA Finals record of 22 three-pointers made with his 23rd trey in the 3rd quarter of Game 5. However it was his 24th three-pointer that helped close out the Heat.

With 2:54 left in the 3rd, San Antonio leads 75-74 after a 7-0 run by Miami has cut the Spurs win percentage from 83.3% to 66.7%. Danny Green makes a pivotal three-pointer extending the Spurs lead to 4 points making San Antonio 73.6% likely to win.

Green’s three-pointer sparks a 12-1 run led by Ginobili to close the 3rd quarter. San Antonio goes from 66.7% likely to win before Green’s three-pointer to 94.1% after the scoring outburst.

GameChanger – Moving screens

Moving screens occur on nearly every pick that is set in the NBA. The vast majority of these potential fouls are not called. However, moving screens were called against the Heat twice in the fourth quarter that killed comeback attempts.

With 6:58 left in the 4th, Miami is trailing by 13 points but is in the midst of a 9-2 run. Mike Miller is called for an illegal screen out of bounds, which elicits this response from Eric Spoelstra and negates a Wade runner. Had the call not been made and Wade’s basket counted, the Heat would have gone from 1.9% likely to win to 3.3%. It is not a dramatic increase but the Spurs did go on a 6-2 run following the moving screen call.

With 2:23 left in the 4th, Miami is on another 9-2 run and are trailing the Spurs by 11 points. Once again Miami is called for a moving screen (LeBron). This foul negates a Ray Allen three-pointer that would have made it an 8-point game. Had the foul not been called and Miami is trailing by 8 points the Heat increase their win percentage from 1.9% to 5.3%.

This may seem trivial but we have seen teams with slimmer chances of a winning comeback. Remember Baltimore against Denver in the Divisional Round? The Ravens only had a 1.4% chance of winning with 0:40 left in the 4th.

GameChanger – It was over when…

With 9:32 left in the 4th, Tim Duncan makes a two point shot, part of a 7-0 run to open the 4th; San Antonio became 99% likely to win.

Live ScoreCaster 

Allows you to view current scores and play-by-play as well as live, updating projections from 50,000 simulations of the remaining time in each NBA game. Live ScoreCaster is totally free and available at PredictionMachine.com and for download on iTunes