NBA Live (06/14/13)

By John Ewing

A look at game changing plays in Game 4 of the NBA Finals utilizing Live ScoreCaster.

In a must win game, no team has come back from a 3-1 deficit in the Finals, Miami’s Big 3 showed up to play. LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh combined to score 85 points helping the Heat even the series at 2-2. Below we look at game changing plays utilizing Live ScoreCaster.

Live ScoreCaster allows you to view current scores and play-by-play as well as live, updating projections from 50,000 simulations of the remaining time in each NBA game. Live ScoreCaster is totally free and available at PredictionMachine.com and for download on iTunes

To view the Live ScoreCaster for Game 4 of Heat/Spurs click here.

Spurs vs. Heat

  • The Heat’s 109-93 victory guaranteed at least one more game in Miami.
  • Miami extended its streak to 12 consecutive wins following a loss; have not had consecutive losses since January 8-10th.
  • The sharps and public alike were on the Heat in Game 4, the line opened Spurs -2 but closed Heat -2.
  • The line for Game 5 opened at a pick’em but early Heat money has Miami favored by 1 point.

After stealing home court advantage in Game 1, the Spurs were a 51.3% likely to win the series. Miami became a 58.6% favorite to win after Game 2 but the Spurs became a slight favorite (51.3%) after blowing Miami out in Game 3. Below are updated odds following Miami’s win in Game 4.

Click here for the original projected series results. 

Team Wins Series% in 6 Games% in 7 Games%
San Antonio Spurs 30.2% 15.7% 14.5%
Miami Heat 69.8% 32.2% 37.6%

GameChanger – Spurs' missed last second shots

In San Antonio’s Finals wins the Spurs have made a number of last second shots. In Game 1, Tim Duncan made a basket at the end of the first half to pull the Spurs within 3 points. In Game 3, Gary Neal nailed a 3-pointer to extend San Antonio’s lead to six points at the half. In Game 4 these shots were not falling but if they had it could have changed the game.

With 0:00 left in the 1st, Tony Parker misses a 13-foot runner, Heat leading 29-26, Miami is a 53.3% favorite to win. Had that shot went in the Heat are up 29-28 and the Spurs become our projected favorites winning it 52.2% of the time.

With 0:01 left in the 3rd, Tony Parker misses a 5-foot jumper, Heat go into the 4th up 81-76 and are 52.5% likely to win. Had Parker made that shot and the Spurs trail by three points, San Antonio would once again become our projected favorite winning 53.5% of the time.

GameChanger – Dwyane Wade

Wade had been absent, 14.3 points on 44.1% shooting, in the first three games of the NBA Finals. In Game 4, Wade showed up! This was exemplified by a series of plays late in the 4th quarter.

With 8:38 left in the 4th, Miami is up 86-81, 64.8% likely to win, Wade makes a jumper to push the lead to 7 points. On the next play he steals the ball (bad pass by Danny Green) and dunks it extending Miami’s advantage to 9 points. Miami is now 82.6% likely to win. Wade’s series of plays increased the Heat’s odds of winning by 17.8%.

GameChanger – It was over when…

With 4:37 left in the 4th, LeBron James makes a 20-foot jumper; LeBron went 8-of-11 outside of the paint in Game 4 (ESPN), putting the Heat up 102-87, Miami became 99% likely to win.