NBA Live (06/12/13)

By John Ewing

A look at game changing plays in Game 3 of the NBA Finals utilizing Live ScoreCaster.

San Antonio’s knockaround guys Danny Green, Gary Neal, Kawhi Leonard starred in the Spurs blowout of Miami. The Spurs won by 36 points, the third largest margin of victory in NBA Finals history. The Spurs handled the Heat with the deep ball setting an NBA Finals record with 16 3-pointers. Below we look at game changing plays utilizing Live ScoreCaster.

Live ScoreCaster allows you to view current scores and play-by-play as well as live, updating projections from 50,000 simulations of the remaining time in each NBA game. Live ScoreCaster is totally free and available at PredictionMachine.com and for download on iTunes

To view the Live ScoreCaster for Game 1 of Heat/Spurs click here.

Spurs vs. Heat

  • One blowout begets another as the Spurs take a 2-1 series led.
  • San Antonio was the projected favorite for the entire game.
  • The Spurs have never trailed in an NBA Finals series (stat courtesy of ESPN).
  • LeBron started both Game 2 and Game 3 going 2 of 12 from the floor, he is shooting just 38.9% from the floor through three games.
  • With Miami losing, the Heat have a chance to extend their streak of 11 consecutive wins coming off a loss; Spurs are currently favored by 2 points for Game 4.

After Game 1 the Spurs were a 51.3% favorite to win the series. After Game 2 Miami became a 58.6% favorite to win, below are updated odds following the Spurs win in Game 3.

Click here for projected series results before Game 1. 

Team Wins Series% in 4 Games% in 5 Games% in 6 Games% in 7 Games%
San Antonio Spurs 57.1% 0.0% 32.5% 14.0% 10.6%
Miami Heat 42.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 29.7%

GameChanger – 3-pointers

The Spurs set an NBA Finals record with 16 made 3-pointers. The number made is staggering, but the timing of the baskets was also key.

With 0:37 left in the 2nd, Dwyane Wade makes a two point shot to tie the game at 44-44. The Spurs answer with two quick 3-pointers. The last is a buzzer beater by Gary Neal off of a LeBron blocked shot that makes San Antonio 76.2% likely to win.

Had Neal’s shot not went in at the buzzer the Spurs are only 67.4% likely to win. Had the Spurs made neither 3-pointer San Antonio enters halftime tied with a 55.1% chance of winning.

GameChanger – It was over when…

With 2:56 left in the 3rd, San Antonio completes an 11-0 run that makes them 99% likely to win.