NBA Live (06/10/13)

By John Ewing

A look at game changing plays in Game 2 of the NBA Finals utilizing Live ScoreCaster.

Entering Game 2 Miami had won 10 straight games following a loss. Yet early money was on the Spurs +5.5 after their Game 1 victory, as much as 58% on Saturday. However late money came in on Miami moving the line to Heat -6.5 and the game closed with 51% of the money backing South Beach according to Kevin Bradley, Sports Book Manager, Bovada.lv. Miami used a 33-5 run to rout the Spurs and reward their late backers. Below we look at game changing plays utilizing Live ScoreCaster.

Live ScoreCaster allows you to view current scores and play-by-play as well as live, updating projections from 50,000 simulations of the remaining time in each NBA game. Live ScoreCaster is totally free and available at PredictionMachine.com and for download on iTunes

To view the Live ScoreCaster for Game 2 of Heat/Spurs click here.

Heat vs. Spurs

  • Miami evens series at 1-1 with 103-84 blowout of San Antonio.
  • The Heat were our projected winner for 96.1% of the game despite San Antonio leading Miami for over 25% of the game.
  • Prior to Game 2 the Heat had won 81% of their games when opponents committed at least 10 turnovers (ESPN), San Antonio lost the ball 17 times leading to 19 points.

After Game 1 the Spurs were a 51.3% favorite to win the series. Even with the Spurs playing the next three games at home the Heat have once again become the projected favorites to win the series.

Click here for projected series results before Game 1. 

Team Wins Series% in 4 Games% in 5 Games% in 6 Games% in 7 Games%
San Antonio Spurs 41.4% 0.0% 18.7% 10.6% 12.1%
Miami Heat 58.6% 0.0% 7.4% 19.5% 31.7%

GameChanger – 33-5 run

With 3:16 left in the 3rd, San Antonio leads Miami 62-61; Spurs are 53.9% likely to win. Mario Chalmers converts a three-point play to give the Heat a 64-62 advantage and sparks the beginning of the game defining run. With the three-point play Miami becomes 58.7% likely to win.

With 0:09 left in the 3rd, Mario Chalmers converts another three-point play to give Miami a 75-65 lead and makes the Heat an 82.1% favorite to win the game.

With 7:13 left in the 4th, LeBron James makes a three-point jumper to cap off the Heat’s 33-5 run. Miami’s win percentage went from 46.1% prior to the scoring outburst to 99.9%.

GameChanger – LeBron’s block

With 8:20 left in the 4th, LeBron blocks Tiago Splitter and on the ensuing play finds Ray Allen for a three-pointer. That series of plays gave the Heat a 99.9% chance of winning.

GameChanger – The over

Prior to the Heat’s 33-5 run the total (which we posted at 188, we liked the over) was projected to be 185, under our posted line. After the 33-5 run the projected total was 189. Inept shooting by scrubs in garbage time doomed the over: DeJuan Blair (1-4), James Jones (0-2), Tracy McGrady (0-1).