NBA Live (05/29/13)

By John Ewing

A look at game changing plays in the final minutes of Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals utilizing Live ScoreCaster.

It would be foolhardy to say that Indiana won because of the officiating. LeBron James fouled out in the final minute of Game 4 after totaling five fouls in the Heat’s previous five road playoff games this postseason. The real reason the Pacers won is their ability to attack the basket and secure offensive rebounds. Below we look at how rebounding changed the game utilizing Live ScoreCaster.

Live ScoreCaster allows you to view current scores and play-by-play as well as live, updating projections from 50,000 simulations of the remaining time in each NBA game. Live ScoreCaster is totally free and available at PredictionMachine.com and for download on iTunes

To view the Live ScoreCaster for Game 2 of Heat/Pacers click here.

Heat vs. Pacers

  • Pacers even series with 99-92 victory.
  • Indiana is 3-1 against Miami at home this season and 7-1 at home in the playoffs.
  • The Pacers finished the game on a 16-6 run and were favored to win over the last 2:42 in the 4th.
  • Indiana had more offensive rebounds (6) in the 4th quarter than the Heat had total rebounds (4).

GameChanger – Roy Hibbert’s 2nd offensive rebound in 4th

With 2:43 left in the 4th, game tied 89-89; Roy Hibbert grabs another offensive rebound (12 total rebounds, 6 offensive) and makes a layup to give Indiana the lead. With that offensive rebound and subsequent putback Indiana becomes 62.8% likely to win. Had Miami controlled the rebound the Heat would have been 50.9% likely to win the game.

GameChanger – Roy Hibbert’s 3rd offensive rebound in 4th

With 1:30 left in the 4th, Indiana leading 91-89, Hibbert again corrals the offensive rebound and scores to give Indiana a 93-89 lead and increases their win percentage to 77.2%. If Miami would have secured the rebound the Pacers win percentage drops to 66.9%.

Series tied 2-2, the Miami Heat are 78.0% likely to advance to the NBA Finals.

Rebounding was the difference in this game and it is what is keeping Indiana in this series. Hibbert and David West have 82 rebounds in four games while Chris Bosh, Udonis Haslem, Chris Andersen and Shane Battier have combined for just 59 (ESPN Stats and Info). While rebounding was huge, the Heat may still have won if a few calls had went their way.

With 0:26 left in the 4th, Miami trailing 96-92, the Heat only have a 20.9% chance of winning. Dwyane Wade drives and passes the ball to Shane Battier who makes a 3-pointer to pull the Heat within one point. But Wade is called for a travel and Battier's basket does not count. If Wade is not called for traveling and Battier’s basket stands, the Heat increase their chances of winning to 41.1%.