NBA LIVE 2013 (05/08/13)

By John Ewing

A look at highlights from the most recent game from each of the four NBA Playoffs series utilizing Live ScoreCaster. 

Live ScoreCaster allows you to view current scores and play-by-play as well as live, updating projections from 50,000 simulations of the remaining time in each NBA game. Live ScoreCaster is totally free and available at PredictionMachine.com and for download on iTunes

It's been an exciting and dramatic last two days in the NBA Playoffs. Here are some highlights from the Live projections throughout each game. Click each matchup to view Live ScoreCaster chart output that tells the story of that game.

Heat vs. Bulls

  • Chicago went on a 10-0 in the final two minutes to steal Game 1, 93-86 on the road.
  • The Bulls were not favored to win Game 1 until 1:18 left in the 4th quarter.
  • Prior to the 10-0 run, Miami was an 80.4% favorite to win the game.
  • Chicago snapped Miami’s 27-game winning streak in the regular season; this Bulls' win ended a 12-game winning streak for Miami.

GameChanger

With 1:17 left in the 4th, Dwyane Wade missed a 3-pointer that would have given Miami an 89-88 lead. After the miss, Chicago became a 63.3% favorite to win. Had Wade made the shot, Miami becomes a 60.9% favorite to win; projected final score of 92-90.

Though down 0-1, Miami is still 83.6% likely to win this NBA Eastern Conference series.

Spurs vs. Warriors

  • Spurs defeat Warriors 129-127 in 2OT.
  • San Antonio was 0.7% likely to win when down 16 with 4 minutes left (teams up 16 with 4 minutes left were 392-0 in NBA playoffs).
  • Spurs were never favored to win the game at any point in the fourth quarter.
  • Golden State has not won in San Antonio since 1997 (30 straight defeats) when Steph Curry was 8 years old.

GameChanger

With 2:00 left in the second overtime and Golden State down 121-120, Carl Landry made a bad pass that resulted in a turnover and a Tony Parker made jumper that made San Antonio 71% likely to win the game. Turnovers haunted Golden State (21 as a team, 6 by Steph Curry). Had Landry not turned the ball over and the Warriors made a basket to go up 122-121, they would have become 52% favorites to win the game.

Up 1-0, San Antonio is 88% likely to win this Western Conference series; Spurs would have been just 62% likely to win series if down 0-1.

Knicks vs. Pacers

  • Knicks go on 30-2 run to even series at 1-1.
  • Though it was a close game through three quarters, New York was favored to win the game for 47:37 minutes (99.2% of the game).
  • New York became 99%+ likely to win with nearly nine minutes left to play in the fourth quarter.
  • This is the first time New York scored 100 points in a playoff game since 1999 and it was the Knicks largest margin of victory in the postseason since 1992.

GameChanger

With 3:00 left in the third quarter and Indiana leading 64-62, the Pacers take a timeout. On the ensuing play, Paul George turns the ball over (21 turnovers lead to 32 points for the Knicks) and the Knicks tie the game and become 59.5% likely to win. Had Indiana maintained possession and scored out of the timeout they become 57.8% likely to win the game.

Had Indiana won to go up 2-0, the Pacers would have been 86.4% likely to win the series. At 1-1, Indiana is still 53.1% likely to win this Eastern Conference series over the Knicks.

Thunder vs. Grizzlies

  • Grizzlies even series at 1-1 with 99-93 victory over Thunder.
  • The Thunder were 87.1% likely to win at the end of the third quarter when leading 74-69.
  • Memphis outscored OKC 23-6 in second-chance points and 18-7 on the fast break.
  • Oklahoma City is 3-3 this postseason when Kevin Durant brings the ball up the court 30 or more times.

GameChanger

With 1:58 left in the 4th, Mike Conley hits a 3-pointer to give Memphis a 92-90 lead. This sparks a 10-0 run that sees the Grizzlies go from 38.5% to 99.9% likely to win. Had Conley missed the shot, the Thunder would have had possession and would have been 62% likely to win the game.

The Grizzlies are now 52.2% like to win the series. Had the Thunder won and gone up 2-0, OKC would have been 80.9% likely to win the series.