Playoff Probabilities (08/31/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
MLB Playoff Probabilities – Who's in?

There is a little over a month of baseball to be played. Which teams are locks to make the postseason and which have work to do?


The most likely World Series features the Los Angeles Dodgers vs. the Toronto Blue Jays.

St. Louis and Kansas City are locks to make the playoffs. There is a 6.0 percent chance that the Cardinals and Royals meet in the World Series – a rematch of the 1985 Fall Classic.

The Mets' playoff probability has increased 67.8 percent in August. The Amazins' have a 5.5 game lead over the Washington Nationals in the NL East and are 8.1 percent likely to win the World Series.

The Cubs are known as “The Loveable Losers,” but that nickname might change soon. Chicago went 19-8 in August and owns a 5.5 game lead in the second Wild Card. The Cubbies wear matching pajamas on team flights and have a 94.0 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Toronto added David Price and Troy Tulowitzki at the trade deadline. The acquisitions have helped the Blue Jays win 21 of their last 25 games. The Jays' World Series odds have improved 8.9 percent in the last month.

The Nationals, Angels and Giants have all seen their playoff probabilities decrease by at least 40 percent in the last 30 days.

Eight teams are greater than 90 percent likely to make the playoffs - bad news for those teams chasing the Wild Card.

No team has officially been eliminated from the playoffs, but by our projections nine clubs (zero percent chance of reaching the postseason) can start planning their offseason vacations.

MLB Playoff Probabilities

Team Playoffs World Series
Los Angeles Dodgers 91.8 20.4
Toronto Blue Jays 99.7 13.3
St. Louis Cardinals 100.0 12.0
Kansas City Royals 100.0 11.4
Houston Astros 96.2 11.1
New York Mets 87.1 8.1
Pittsburgh Pirates 99.8 6.9
Chicago Cubs 94.0 5.6
New York Yankees 95.2 4.9
Texas Rangers 54.5 2.2
Washington Nationals 16.0 2.2
San Francisco Giants 11.4 0.7
Tampa Bay Rays 11.5 0.4
Minnesota Twins 17.2 0.3
Los Angeles Angels 12.1 0.3
Cleveland Indians 8.3 0.3
Chicago White Sox 1.4 0.1
Baltimore Orioles 2.6 0.0
Seattle Mariners 0.5 0.0
Detroit Tigers 0.4 0.0
Boston Red Sox 0.4 0.0
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.0 0.0
San Diego Padres 0.0 0.0
Atlanta Braves 0.0 0.0
Oakland Athletics 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati Reds 0.0 0.0
Colorado Rockies 0.0 0.0
Miami Marlins 0.0 0.0
Milwaukee Brewers 0.0 0.0
Philadelphia Phillies 0.0 0.0