Playoff Probabilities (07/01/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
MLB Playoff Probabilities – Does your team still have a chance to make the playoffs?

As the MLB season quickly approaches the midway point, does your team still have a chance to make the playoffs?

A lot can happen in the second half of the season but as the MLB All-Star Game approaches, the true contenders are beginning to separate from the pack.


The Cardinals are the most likely team to reach the postseason (99.6 percent). St. Louis enjoys the largest division lead in baseball (8 games) but the Redbirds are not the most likely World Series champions.

That honor belongs to the Dodgers. Los Angeles is 33.8 percent likely to reach the World Series and has a 22.7 percent chance to win it all for the first time since 1988.

The Pirates have seen their playoff odds increase the most in the last month. In May, Pittsburgh had a 39.7 percent chance to reach the postseason. After going 17-9 in June the Pirates are now 74.0 percent likely to play past the 162nd game of the season.

Other big gainers: Toronto +23.3 percent, Baltimore +19.5 percent, Texas +12.9 percent and New York Yankees +11.8 percent.

Detroit entered June battling Kansas City for the AL Central lead but the Tigers now find themselves six games back of the Royals and 1.5 games out of the Wild Card. Detroit's playoff probability has decreased 27.8 percent, the most of any team.

Other big losers: Seattle -26.8 percent, San Diego -16.0 percent, Boston -10.7 percent and New York Mets -10.3 percent.

Only six teams have greater than a 1-in-20 chance of winning the World Series.

The Cardinals (7/1), Nationals (7/1) and Dodgers (8/1) all have value to win the World Series. Odds courtesy of

Congratulations Philadelphia, you are the only team that has a zero percent chance of making the playoffs. There are nine other teams with less than a five percent chance of playing late into October and will likely join the Phillies as officially eliminated from contention.

MLB Playoff Probabilities

Team Playoffs World Series
Los Angeles Dodgers 96.8 22.7
St. Louis Cardinals 99.6 14.4
Washington Nationals 95.6 14.1
Kansas City Royals 79.5 5.6
New York Yankees 58.1 5.3
Houston Astros 75.3 5.1
Pittsburgh Pirates 74.0 4.5
Toronto Blue Jays 45.5 4.2
Chicago Cubs 68.2 4.2
Detroit Tigers 42.0 4.0
Baltimore Orioles 40.4 3.1
Los Angeles Angels 39.4 2.7
Tampa Bay Rays 40.0 2.7
Oakland Athletics 12.8 1.6
Cleveland Indians 17.7 1.5
San Francisco Giants 36.7 1.4
Texas Rangers 19.7 0.9
Boston Red Sox 11.1 0.7
Minnesota Twins 13.0 0.4
New York Mets 14.6 0.4
Seattle Mariners 4.2 0.2
San Diego Padres 1.9 0.1
Arizona Diamondbacks 3.0 0.1
Cincinnati Reds 3.6 0.1
Atlanta Braves 4.8 0.1
Philadelphia Phillies 0.0 0.0
Milwaukee Brewers 0.1 0.0
Miami Marlins 0.5 0.0
Colorado Rockies 0.6 0.0
Chicago White Sox 1.3 0.0