Playoff Probabilities (05/26/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
MLB Playoff Probabilities – How have each team's chances to reach the postseason changed?



A lot can happen over the course of a 162 games. While we are still months away from October, with more than a quarter of the games in the books, we can get a decent idea of what the postseason picture looks like.

For some teams, their playoff outlook has already changed dramatically.

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The Dodgers are the most likely playoff team. Los Angeles reaches the postseason 98 percent of the time in our simulations. LA is one of nine teams to have a positive double-digit increase in their projected playoff probability.

Houston, we don't have a problem. The Astros rebuilding plan has come together quicker than most expected. The ‘Stros have a 5.5 game lead in the AL West and the team's playoff odds have increased by more than 1,500 percent.

Boston's season has been maddening. The Red Sox have only won three games in a row once. The team started the season 7-3 but has since gone 14-21. The Red Sox were one of the favorites to win the American League but now a playoff berth is a stretch.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings. No team has been eliminated from the playoffs. There is still a chance even for the Phillies (0.1 percent), the worst team in baseball.

MLB Playoff Probabilities

Team Preseason Current Change
Los Angeles Dodgers 84.8 98.0 +13.2
Washington Nationals 92.8 97.7 +4.9
St. Louis Cardinals 78.8 93.9 +15.1
Kansas City Royals 51.4 87.5 +36.1
Detroit Tigers 47.7 69.8 +22.1
Houston Astros 4.1 66.7 +62.6
Chicago Cubs 45.7 62.2 +16.5
New York Yankees 31.9 46.3 +14.4
San Francisco Giants 43.6 43.6 0.0
Pittsburgh Pirates 58.8 39.7 -19.1
Tampa Bay Rays 8.5 33.2 +24.7
Los Angeles Angels 59.1 32.9 -26.2
Seattle Mariners 67.5 31.0 -36.5
New York Mets 16.5 24.9 +8.4
Cleveland Indians 52.0 24.3 -27.7
Toronto Blue Jays 33.1 22.2 -10.9
Minnesota Twins 1.5 22.1 +20.6
Boston Red Sox 73.6 21.8 -51.8
Baltimore Orioles 27.6 20.9 -6.7
San Diego Padres 35.2 17.9 -17.3
Oakland Athletics 19.9 8.7 -11.2
Texas Rangers 10.1 6.8 -3.3
Miami Marlins 19.9 6.3 -13.6
Atlanta Braves 2.3 5.8 +3.5
Chicago White Sox 11.8 5.7 -6.1
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.8 4.8 +4.0
Colorado Rockies 5.1 3.1 -2.0
Cincinnati Reds 5.4 1.3 -4.1
Milwaukee Brewers 8.5 0.7 -7.8
Philadelphia Phillies 1.9 0.1 -1.8