MLB Playoff Probabilities (04/20/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
2015 MLB Playoff Probabilities – odds to win the World Series.

We have just stepped into the batter's box of the 2015 MLB season, but two weeks and a dozen games into a 162-game schedule have already shifted the postseason landscape for many teams.

How has the playoff probabilities for your favorite team changed?

Each week, we will simulate the rest of the regular season and playoffs 50,000 times with updated player and team statistical information to provide up-to-date projected records, standings, playoff probabilities and odds to win the World Series for each team in Major League Baseball.

Top storylines:

The Dodgers have been one of the best teams to start the young season. The defending NL West champs have used a top five offense and defense to win seven games in a row and are now the favorites (16.0%) to win the World Series after a slow start by Washington.

In D.C., the Nationals have stumbled out of the gate. Our preseason favorites to win the World Series have a losing record. Bookmaker has lowered the Nats' championship odds to 15/2, they were 6/1 before the season started. At those longer odds, even with the poor start, there is value in backing Washington to win it all.

Are the Royals for real? We projected last year's playoff darlings to win the AL Central before the season began and Kansas City has made us look smart by winning nine of their first twelve games. KC is nearly 70 percent likely to make the playoffs but faces stiff competition from division rival Detroit. The Tigers have increased their playoff probability by 30 percent since the season began.

One team we don't trust, the Mets. New York is off its best start (10-3 record) since 2006. The Mets have won eight games in a row, their longest winning streak since 2010. Despite the scorching start, the Metropolitans have less than a 30 percent chance to reach the postseason.

There is much to be determined in the 2015 season, only four teams (Dodgers, Nationals, Cardinals and Tigers) have greater than a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs.

However, for some organizations the season may already be over. Six clubs (Phillies, Twins, Brewers, Reds, Diamondbacks and Rangers) have a zero percent chance to win the World Series, up from four teams before the season started. To clarify, teams with zero percent chance have won at least one World Series in 50,000 simulations but none of them won at least 25 and therefore show a zero percent chance to win.

MLB Playoff Probabilities

Team Playoff% World Series
Los Angeles Dodgers 90.5 16.0
Washington Nationals 89.1 12.7
St. Louis Cardinals 88.8 11.9
Detroit Tigers 77.7 9.2
Boston Red Sox 72.2 8.7
Seattle Mariners 58.0 7.5
Kansas City Royals 68.2 7.1
Los Angeles Angels 49.8 4.4
San Diego Padres 65.9 3.8
Pittsburgh Pirates 47.9 3.5
Chicago Cubs 48.8 3.0
Baltimore Orioles 42.9 2.4
Oakland Athletics 28.4 2.1
New York Yankees 29.0 1.9
Cleveland Indians 28.9 1.8
Toronto Blue Jays 21.2 1.3
New York Mets 29.0 0.8
Chicago White Sox 13.2 0.7
San Francisco Giants 13.2 0.5
Miami Marlins 8.2 0.3
Houston Astros 4.0 0.2
Atlanta Braves 8.1 0.1
Colorado Rockies 6.8 0.1
Tampa Bay Rays 5.0 0.1
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.3 0.0
Cincinnati Reds 2.3 0.0
Milwaukee Brewers 1.1 0.0
Minnesota Twins 0.8 0.0
Philadelphia Phillies 0.2 0.0
Texas Rangers 0.7 0.0