Playoff Odds (09/22/14)

By John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
Odds for each MLB team to reach the playoffs heading into the last week of the regular season. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.



This is the week when baseball's still unresolved playoff races will finally be resolved. Who's in, who's out? The final days of September will decide which teams join the Angels, Dodgers, Orioles, Nationals, and Cardinals in the postseason.

The Tigers are near locks (>99%) to make the playoffs with a 1.5 game lead over Kansas City in the AL Central. Kansas City has a 7 percent chance of eclipsing Detroit for the division title but the Royals are 68.5 percent likely to reach the postseason for the first time in 25 years.

San Francisco is hoping to avoid the Wild Card but are currently trailing the LA Dodgers by 4.5 games. The Giants only have a 4 percent chance of winning the NL West, but are 98.8 percent likely to play in October.

The most interesting battle is for the Wild Cards in the American League. Trying to catch Oakland and Kansas City is Seattle (1.5 games back), Cleveland (3.5 games back) and the New York Yankees (4.5 games back) vying for the final spot. The Mariners are the best bet to catch the Athletics and Royals.

Will the Mariners make the playoffs?
Yes: +500
No: -800

With a 33.6 percent chance of making the playoffs, there is value (only need 16.7 percent confidence in order to place a wager at 5/1) in betting Seattle to reach the postseason.

The Brewers were 65 percent likely to make the playoffs on August 1st, but now have just an 11 percent chance to continue playing after the regular season trailing Pittsburgh and San Francisco by 4.5 games in the Wild Card.

For our rest of season projections, click here.

For our MLB Future plays including World Series, League and Division picks, click here.

Odds to Reach the Playoffs (Current, on September 1st, & on August 1st)

Team Odds to Reach Playoffs Sept. 1st Aug. 1st
Baltimore Orioles 100.0 99.9 76.5
Los Angeles Angels 100.0 100.0 98.8
Los Angeles Dodgers 100.0 99.9 97.5
St. Louis Cardinals 100.0 99.1 64.9
Washington Nationals 100.0 99.9 88.3
Detroit Tigers 99.6 70.8 85.3
San Francisco Giants 98.8 95.0 53.1
Oakland Athletics 90.7 91.3 99.8
Pittsburgh Pirates 89.7 56.1 46.0
Kansas City Royals 68.5 74.8 20.1
Seattle Mariners 33.6 50.5 14.3
Milwaukee Brewers 11.4 21.0 65.3
Cleveland Indians 7.0 5.8 9.4
New York Yankees 0.5 2.2 9.5
Atlanta Braves 0.1 27.3 52.2
Toronto Blue Jays 0.1 5.0 71.4
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.0 0.0 0.1
Boston Red Sox 0.0 0.0 0.1
Chicago Cubs 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chicago White Sox 0.0 0.0 2.6
Cincinnati Reds 0.0 0.0 21.6
Colorado Rockies 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston Astros 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami Marlins 0.0 1.5 6.1
Minnesota Twins 0.0 0.0 0.1
New York Mets 0.0 0.1 4.4
Philadelphia Phillies 0.0 0.0 0.3
San Diego Padres 0.0 0.0 0.1
Tampa Bay Rays 0.0 0.0 12.2
Texas Rangers 0.0 0.0 0.0