Kentucky Undefeated (12/29/14)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
What are the odds that the Kentucky Wildcats finish the regular season undefeated?

Kentucky dispatched in-state rival Louisville 58-50 last Saturday, a game many considered to be the most difficult on the Wildcats' schedule.

An 18 game SEC slate is all that stands in the way of Kentucky finishing the regular season unbeaten.

Only two teams this century have finished the regular season with a perfect record, Saint Joseph's in 2003-04 and Wichita State last season. What are the odds that Kentucky runs the regular season table?

Below is Kentucky's expected win probability for each remaining game.

Opponent Kentucky's Odds to Win
vs. Ole Miss 95.9%
@ Texas A&M 88.7%
vs. Missouri 98.3%
@ Alabama 84.1%
vs. Vanderbilt 95.1%
@ South Carolina 81.9%
@ Missouri 88.1%
vs. Alabama 96.9%
vs. Georgia 95.3%
@ Florida 80.3%
@ LSU 85.5%
vs. South Carolina 94.3%
@ Tennessee 88.2%
vs. Auburn 97.9%
@ Mississippi State 90.9%
vs. Arkansas 94.8%
@ Georgia 84.9%
vs. Florida 90.0%

The Wildcats are greater than 80 percent likely to win every conference game and are nearly 95 percent likely to win every remaining game in Rupp Arena. Kentucky will be a heavy favorite in each SEC contest and we project the No. 1 team in the country to win by double-digits in each matchup.

We estimate that Kentucky has a 16.4 percent chance of finishing the regular season undefeated.

After simulating the remainder of the regular season 50,000 times, Kentucky is projected to finish with less than two losses on average (29.3 wins, 1.7 losses).

Top ranked Kentucky is an even-money favorite to win the NCAA Tournament. Oddsmaker gives Kentucky 5/1 odds to finish the 2014-15 season undefeated. That includes the regular season, conference tournament and NCAA tournament.

But will Kentucky go 40-0?