GameChangers Week 4 (09/28/14)

By John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we will take our in-game technology, Live ScoreCaster, to the next level to review the game-changing plays from the NFL and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently.

Click the header for each game to view the Game Breakdown for each matchup.

Packers vs. Bears


Packer-land: can R-E-L-A-X after Aaron Rodgers threw for 302 yards and four touchdowns. Green Bay scored on its first six possessions and intercepted Jay Cutler two times in the third quarter to wallop Chicago 38-17.

Prior to Cutler's first interception in the third quarter, Chicago had a 42 percent chance of winning trailing Green Bay 24-17. After Cutler's second interception on the team's next possession the Bears' expected win probability dropped to 3 percent.

Chicago scored on its first three drives and had a chance to take the lead going into halftime when Martellus Bennett caught an 8-yard pass as time expired. Bennett was ruled short of the end zone and replay upheld the call. Had Bennett scored, Chicago leading 24-21, the Bears expected win probability would have increased from 38 percent to 58 percent.

For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

49ers vs. Eagles


San Francisco overcame special teams miscues and avoided a three game losing streak beating Philadelphia 26-21. The Eagles had a chance late as Nick Foles threw two incomplete passes from the 49ers 1-yard line in the finals minutes.

The largest play-to-play swing in the game occurred when Philadelphia turned the ball over on downs with 1:50 to play. San Francisco's expected win probability increased from 65 percent to 93 percent

Had the Eagles scored from the 1-yard line (PHI 28, SF 26), Philadelphia would have been 61 percent likely to win.

For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

Colts vs. Titans


Andrew Luck threw for 393 yards and four touchdowns and Reggie Wayne topped 100 yards receiving and moved into seventh place on the NFL's career reception list as Indianapolis thumped Tennessee 41-17.

Lost in the Colts blowout was a surprise onside kick. Following Indianapolis' first touchdown, the Colts used a little trickery on special teams. Teams that are leading and attempt an onside kick recover the ball about 55 percent of the time.

The extra possession led to an Indy touchdown, the Colts took a 14-0 lead and became 90 percent likely to win.

For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

Buccaneers vs. Steelers


Tampa Bay shook off a six touchdown loss to Atlanta last week to shock Pittsburgh 27-24. The game winning touchdown was set up by a 41-yard Louis Murphy catch and run with less than 30 seconds remaining. The big play increased the Bucs' odds of winning from 25 percent to 81 percent.

Pittsburgh could have sealed the win on a flea flicker in the fourth but Antonio Brown dropped Ben Roethlisberger's pass. Had Brown caught Big Ben's deep ball, the Pro Bowler would have run for a long touchdown giving Pittsburgh a two touchdown lead and made the Steelers 97 percent likely to win.

For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.