GameChangers Week 5 (10/12/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we will take our in-game technology, Live ScoreCaster, to the next level to review the game-changing plays from the NFL and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently.

Click the header for each game to view the Game Breakdown for each matchup.

The Play

Falcons vs. Redskins



The Atlanta Falcons stayed perfect defeating Washington 25-19. In overtime, Falcons' cornerback Robert Alford intercepted Kirk Cousins and returned the pick 59-yards for a touchdown.



The walk-off pick-six gave the Falcons the win and made Atlanta 5-0 for the second time in four years..

Had Cousins' pass fell incomplete, Washington's ball (3rd-and-8 at the 50-yard line), the Redskins become 60 percent likely to win.

For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

The Decision

Bills vs. Titans



Buffalo rallied from a ten point deficit to beat the Titans 14-13. Tyrod Taylor threw for a touchdown, rushed for a score and even caught a pass. The Bills budding star quarterback's net win percentage was 51.4 percent.

Taylor also jump started the 80-yard game-winning drive by running for 24 yards on 3rd-and-23, an interesting decision given the down and distance. Not only did the Titans give up the big scramble but were also called for a horse collar, an additional 15 yards were added on to the play for the penalty. Buffalo's expected win probability increased 18.1 percent to 24.4 percent.

Had Taylor not scrambled for the first down, the Bills likely punt and become less than 5 percent likely to win.

For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

Additional Highlights

Jay Cutler threw two fourth quarter touchdowns, the second a pass to Matt Forte with 18 seconds left to give Chicago an 18-17 comeback. The Bears had just a two percent chance to win entering the final quarter of the game.

Seattle collapsed in the fourth blowing a 24-7 lead. Andy Dalton rallied the Bengals from a 1.5 percent win probability to win in overtime. Cincy is now 5-0 for the first time since 1988, the last time the team went to the Super Bowl.

Josh McCown became the first quarterback in Browns history to throw for 300 yards in three consecutive games. Cleveland overcame a 12-point deficit (7 percent win probability) to beat Baltimore 33-30 in overtime.

Peyton Manning threw two interceptions but once again the defense picked up its quarterback. Chris Harris Jr. returned a fourth quarter interception 74-yards for a touchdown (35 percent swing in win probability) and the Broncos improved to 5-0 with a 16-10 win over the Raiders.

The San Francisco 49ers took a four-point lead in the final two minutes but Eli Manning led the Giants on an 82-yard touchdown drive for a 30-27 victory. There was only a 17 percent chance that New York would come back to win after the 49ers took the late lead.