GameChangers Week 2 (09/21/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we will take our in-game technology, Live ScoreCaster, to the next level to review the game-changing plays from the NFL and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently.

Click the header for each game to view the Game Breakdown for each matchup.

The Play

Packers vs. Seahawks

Pete Carroll believes the officials blew a critical call in the fourth quarter in Seattle's 27-17 loss to Green Bay Sunday night.

With less than seven minutes to play, Seattle trailing 24-17, Packers linebacker Jayrone Elliott made an athletic one-handed interception off of Russell Wilson.



Elliott then immediately fumbled the ball. Both teams scrambled to recover the rock with the Seahawks tackle Justin Britt emerging from the scrum with the ball.

Officials however ruled that the Packers had possession.

Green Bay became 97 percent likely to win with the ball in Seattle territory.

Had the officials ruled that Britt made the recovery, the Seahawks expected win probability increases from 3 percent to 15 percent. Seattle becomes five times as likely to win if the call (and the ball) goes their way.

For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

The Decision

Dolphins vs. Jaguars


In a tightly contested matchup, Jacksonville's game winning field goal was aided by a boneheaded personal foul. On the game's decisive drive Miami's Olivier Vernon was flagged for hitting tight end Clay Harbor after the whistle.



The 15-yard penalty gave the Jaguars a first down at the Miami 19-yard line with a minute to play and turned what would have been a long field goal into a chip shot. Jacksonville's expected win probability increased 29 percent to 94 percent.

Had Harbor not committed the penalty, Jacksonville faces a 3rd-and-5 from the Miami 34-yard line. The Jags expected win probability would have been 74 percent.

For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

Additional Highlights

Johnny Manziel and Travis Benjamin hookup for two long touchdowns, the first of which increased the Browns' expected win probability by 13.3 percent – the largest single play increase in the game.

Jameis Winston bounced back after a disastrous debut and earned his first career win. The Saints were mistake prone turning the ball over three times lowering the team's expected win probability by a combined 57 percent.

Ben Roethlisberger threw for 369 yards and three touchdowns, DeAngelo Williams ran for three scores and Pittsburgh was projected to cover the spread for 87 percent of the game.

The Eagles committed three turnovers including a botched shotgun snap that Dallas recovered to become 99 percent likely to win in the fourth. The Cowboys got the win but they lost Tony Romo with a broken collarbone.