GameChangers Week 10 (11/16/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we will take our in-game technology, Live ScoreCaster, to the next level to review the game-changing plays from the NFL and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently.

Click the header for each game to view the Game Breakdown for each matchup.

The Play

Packers vs. Lions



The Detroit Lions beat the Green Bay Packers in Wisconsin for the first time since 1991. The 24-game losing streak came to an end in thrilling fashion. Detroit stopped Green Bay on a two-point conversion with 32 seconds left and appeared to preserve an 18-16 win. However, the Packers recovered the ensuing onside kick (increasing Green Bay's expected win probability by 32 percent). Then Aaron Rodgers found Davante Adams for a 12-yard gain to put the Packers in field goal range (increasing Green Bay's expected win probability by 33 percent), but Mason Crosby missed what would have been a game-winning 52-yard field goal as time expired.


The Packers were 56 percent likely to win before the missed kick.

Green Bay outplayed Detroit in the fourth quarter but ran out of time to complete the comeback. Had Rodgers connected with Davante Adams on the two-point conversion to tie the game, the Packers become 66 percent likely to win in overtime. All Rodgers needed was an extra session. .

For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

The Decision

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys



Jameis Winston scored a one-yard touchdown on a naked bootleg to lift the Bucs to a 10-6 win over the Cowboys.

The score came one play after Winston fumbled diving into the end zone. Dallas recovered but the play was wiped out because of a defensive holding penalty. The call gave Tampa Bay a first down and made the Bucs 86 percent likely to win.

Had no penalty been called and Dallas recovers the fumble, the Cowboys become 90 percent likely to win with possession and less than a minute to play.

For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

Additional Highlights

Jay Cutler threw three touchdown passes including scores of 83-yards and 87-yards respectively in Sunday's 37-13 road win over the St. Louis Rams. The Bears quarterback increased Chicago's net win percentage by 56 percent.

Kirk Cousins threw a career high four touchdown passes in a 47-14 thumping of the New Orleans Saints. Washington's quarterback was worth 37 percent to the team's net win probability.

Ryan Tannehill's deflected pass became a jump ball that Jarvis Landry won for the go-ahead score early in the fourth.

Landry's heads up play helped him contribute 42 percent toward the Dolphins net win percentage.

Elvis Dumervil's facemask penalty as time expired gave Jacksonville 15 yards and one more play. Jags kicker Jason Myers made the Ravens pay for Dumervil's mistake. His 53-yard field goal gave Jacksonville its first road win since 2013. The Dumervil penalty was worth 46 percent in expected win probability for the Jags.

Peyton Manning became the NFL's all-time leader in career passing yards in Denver's loss to Kansas City. He also threw four interceptions and was benched for Brock Osweiler! Manning's picks increased the Chiefs expected win probability by 24 percent.

Odell Beckham Jr. caught a five-yard touchdown pass from Eli Manning with just over two minutes to play. Officials reviewed the play and the score was taken off the board. The Giants settled for a field goal (difference between scoring seven and three points was 30 percent in expected win probability) and then watched Tom Brady march the Patriots down the field for a game-winning field goal of their own with one second to play.