Free Agency Impact (07/06/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
How has free agency impacted the NBA title odds?



So many free agency moves, so little line movement.

NBA teams committed over $1.4 billion on the first day of free agency. Most of that money was spent to keep players with their current teams.

Damian Lillard signed for five years and $120 million with the Blazers, Kevin Love came to terms with Cleveland on a $110 million contract that will keep him a Cavalier for the next five years, the Spurs locked up Kawhi Leonard, the NBA Defensive Player of the Year (5 years, $90 million) and Anthony Davis signed a five-year extension worth an estimated $145 million to stay with the Pelicans.

Players cashed in but none of the deals were an NBA landscape shifting move like when LeBron decided to go back home to Cleveland last summer.

Though, players that did switch teams had an impact on the NBA title odds.

San Antonio landed talented big man LaMarcus Aldridge, the Spurs title odds have improved from 10/1 to 9/2. San Antonio now only trails Cleveland (11/4) as a favorite to win it all next season.

The Los Angeles Clippers lost DeAndre Jordan to the Mavericks. Without the defensive superstar the Clips title odds have doubled from 10/1 to 20/1.

Dallas on the other hand has seen its odds go from 33/1 to 20/1, fifth best in the NBA.

Six teams have seen their odds improve and 11 teams' odds have gotten worse.

How has free agency impacted your favorite team's title odds?

2015 NBA Title Odds

Team Odds on 06/17/15 Current Odds
Cleveland Cavaliers 3/1 11/4
San Antonio Spurs 10/1 9/2
Golden State Warriors 5/1 9/2
Oklahoma City Thunder 7/1 15/2
Chicago Bulls 10/1 16/1
Dallas Mavericks 33/1 20/1
Houston Rockets 18/1 20/1
Los Angeles Clippers 10/1 20/1
Memphis Grizzlies 25/1 28/1
Atlanta Hawks 25/1 33/1
New Orleans Pelicans 33/1 33/1
Indiana Pacers 33/1 40/1
Miami Heat 33/1 40/1
Toronto Raptors 40/1 40/1
Washington Wizards 40/1 40/1
Los Angeles Lakers 66/1 50/1
Milwaukee Bucks 100/1 50/1
Boston Celtics 50/1 66/1
Portland Trailblazers 40/1 75/1
Detroit Pistons 100/1 100/1
Phoenix Suns 100/1 100/1
Utah Jazz 100/1 100/1
Brooklyn Nets 100/1 150/1
Denver Nuggets 100/1 150/1
Minnesota Timberwolves 150/1 150/1
New York Knicks 100/1 150/1
Sacramento Kings 100/1 150/1
Charlotte Hornets 250/1 250/1
Orlando Magic 250/1 250/1
Philadelphia 76ers 250/1 250/1