Golson vs. Winston (05/20/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Can Everett Golson replace Jameis Winston?

Former Notre Dame quarterback Everett Golson announced Tuesday that he will transfer to Florida State. Golson is eligible to play right away under the NCAA's graduate transfer rule.

At FSU, Golson will try to fill the shoes of former Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston, the No. 1 overall pick in this year's NFL Draft.

Can Everett Golson replace Jameis Winston?

To answer this question we use our impact score.

The impact score is a grade on a 0-10 scale based on a player's expected overall positive contribution at their current ages and relative to position. The score is used to evaluate NFL talent. A seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position; an eight or above can be expected to start and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, standout player who stars.

Entering the 2015 NFL Draft Jameis Winston earned an impact score of 8.1 out of 10. The numbers indicate that Tampa Bay drafted a starting caliber quarterback but not necessarily a franchise-changing player. In fact, Marcus Mariota's impact score was significantly higher; the Buccaneers may come to regret their pick.

While Winston's impact score is unimpressive, Golson's is worse. The former Irishmen would grade out as a 7.2 out of 10. This is a player, had he declared for the draft, who would barely be expected to outperform replacement level talent. From a skill level perspective, Golson does not measure up to Winston.

The future is uncertain in Tallahassee but oddsmakers have already lowered the Seminoles championship odds from 30-1 to 12-1 per Bovada.lv.

If the skill level of the starting quarterback is any indication, bettors should be wary of backing Florida State.

Projected NFL Rookie Stats

Projected Stats Winston Golson
Completion % 60.9% 57.8%
Passing Yards 3,875 3,591
Yards-Per-Attempt 7.5 7.0
Passing Touchdowns 21 20
Interceptions 19 19
Rushing Yards 148 322
Yards-Per-Carry 3.1 4.3