Deflategate Line Movement (05/12/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Deflategate punishment moves the lines in Las Vegas. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.



NFL has suspended Tom Brady for four games for his alleged role in Deflategate. Now that the punishment has come down, sports books have reopened betting on the New England Patriots.

Oddsmakers had taken all Patriots bets including Super Bowl, conference and divisional odds off the board when the Wells report was released.

How has the Deflategate punishment moved the lines in Sin City?

Before Brady's suspension, New England was +750 to win the Super Bowl. The Patriots had the third best odds trailing only Seattle and Green Bay. The defending champions were +350 to win the AFC Conference and -200 to win their division.

The four game suspension has moved the lines but not dramatically. New England is +1000 repeat as Super Bowl Champion (4th best odds), +450 to win the AFC Conference and -150 to win the AFC East.

It may come as a surprise that New England is still the favorite to win the division but it shouldn't. Our analysis of Brady's suspension indicates that the Patriots stay on top of the AFC East even if their starting quarterback misses the first four games of the season.

Of course the suspension isn't guaranteed. Brady's agent has said that the quarterback will appeal his punishment. Think the NFL will waffle on its sentence?

If Tom Brady appeals his Suspension what will the initial results of the appeal be?
  • Remains a 4 game Suspension 11/10
  • 3 game suspension 4/1
  • 2 game suspension 7/5
  • 1 game suspension 7/1
  • No game suspension 10/1

The oddsmakers think the suspension will be upheld and that it is unlikely Brady gets off scot-free.

Change in the New England Patriots Odds

Odds to Win Before Suspension After Suspension
Super Bowl +750 +1000
AFC Conference +350 +450
AFC East -200 -150