Cross Sports Props (02/03/16)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Cross Sport Props to wager on during Super Bowl 50.



All projected stats are averages from the 50,000 simulations of Super Bowl 50. All props are courtesy of Bovada.LV.

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Political Prop

What will be higher? Team Position Spread
Trump % Points in the New Hampshire Primary on Feb. 9th Trump President -200
Total Points scored by the winning Super Bowl team DEN/CAR Team 150

The Trump Train did not run well in Iowa as the presidential hopeful finished second to Ted Cruz. Still, “The Donald” has a 58 percent chance (down from 61 percent before the Iowa caucus) to win the New Hampshire primary according to Nate Silver and fivethirtyeight.com (people who are good at forecasting election results). According to their model, Trump will receive 27.1 percent of votes. A recent CNN poll confirmed that Trump maintains a wide lead in New Hampshire. The poll found that 30 percent of likely Republican primary voters would back the businessman.

Carolina is a slight favorite to top Denver in what should be a low scoring game. With Trump expected to garner nearly 30 percent of votes, backing the comb-over is the right play on this prop.

Projected Score: Carolina 23, Denver 20
Pick: Trump

NBA Prop

What will be higher? Team Position Spread
Chris Paul assists on Feb. 7th LAC PG -120
Denver 1st Half Points DEN Team -120

Chris Paul is averaging 9.5 assists per game this season, fourth best in the Association. The Clippers point guard has averaged nearly a dime more (10.4) per game since Blake Griffin went out with an injury in late December.

On Sunday Los Angeles travels to Miami, Paul has racked up 10.4 assists per game on the road. Paul has only faced the Heat once this year but he recorded 12 assists in that game. Miami also allows the third most assists per game to opponents. Denver has a low projected 1st half total. All signs point toward Paul winning this bet.

Projected 1st half points: Denver 8.8
Pick: Paul

NHL Prop

What will be higher? Team Position Spread
Total goals scored in Montreal vs. Carolina NHL game on Feb. 7th MON/CAR Team -120
Total Receptions by Greg Olsen CAR TE -120

Before the Panthers square off against the Broncos, the Carolina Hurricanes will travel to Montreal to play the Canadiens. The Habs are top ten in the NHL in scoring (average 2.66 goals/game) while Carolina is 25th in offensive efficiency (average 2.41 goals/game). When we play this game 50,000 times Montreal defeats Carolina 62 percent of the time by an average score of 2.9-2.2. Combined the teams score just over five goals on average.

Greg Olsen averaged 4.8 receptions per game in the regular season but has been relied upon even more in the playoffs. Cam Newton has targeted his tight end 14 times in the postseason with Olsen catching 12 balls. The Pro Bowl tight end likely ends up with more catches than goals scored in the matchup in Montreal.

Projected Yards: Olsen 5.4
Pick: Olsen

PGA Prop



What will be higher? Team Position Spread
Jordan Spieth 1st Round Score at 2016 Masters Spieth Golfer Even
Demaryius Thomas Receiving Yards DEN Team -140

The world's No. 1 golfer will begin his Masters defense well after the Super Bowl. How will the 22 year-old Texan shoot in the year's first major? Spieth's average round was a 68 in each of last year's four major tournaments (he won two and his worst finish was fourth place). His first round scores in those events averaged 67.5 – the same line for Demaryius Thomas' receiving yards in the Super Bowl.

There is a ceiling for how bad Spieth can shoot - the worst round of golf he shot last year was a 75. Thomas has a high floor and even higher ceiling as Peyton Manning's favorite receiver but thus far in the playoffs he has managed to do little with his 15 targets (52 yards in two games).

The oddsmakers favor Thomas, and that is fair, but the Denver receiver should see plenty of coverage from Josh Norman. The tough matchup plus a low scoring game factor into our pick of the under on Thomas' receiving total. Thus, Spieth at even-money is the pick.

Projected Receiving Yards: Thomas 66.4
Pick: Spieth

College Basketball Prop

What will be higher? Team Position Spread
1st Half Points by Auburn vs Georgia on Feb. 6th College Basketball Team +120
Cam Newton Rushing Yards CAR QB -160

Auburn has struggled to score all season. The Tigers rank 150th in offensive efficiency and have a tough matchup against a solid Georgia defense. Bruce Pearl's squad has averaged 34.4 1st half points in his second year at the helm of the program. Cam Newton is projected to rush for 32.1 yards against the third best defense in the Super Bowl era. Auburn likely comes under its 1st half average (projected to lose to Georgia 88 percent of the time by an average score of 78-66). Still in a fairly even matchup, take the plus money side.

Projected Rushing Yards: Newton 32.1
Pick: Auburn

Soccer Prop

What will be higher? Team Position Spread
Arsenal Total Goals on Feb. 7th Soccer Team -120
Peyton Manning Touchdown Passes DEN QB -120

The Sheriff isn't the offensive force he once was throwing just nine touchdowns against 17 interceptions in the regular season. Manning looked much better in the AFC Championship game tossing two scores against the Patriots without a pick.

Arsenal is the fifth highest scoring club in the Premier League and has averaged 1.6 goals per contest. The Gunners have a favorable match against Bournemouth on Sunday. The Cherries are a poor defensive club that have conceded the fourth most goals in the league.

This is a race to score two. Manning has thrown the most touchdowns passes in NFL history but he is likely bested in this prop. Arsenal is projected to score 2.3 goals (yeah, we simulate soccer now!) in a win over Bournemouth.

Projected Touchdowns: Manning 1.3
Pick: Arsenal