Cross Sports Props (01/28/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Super Bowl Player vs. Player Props –All projected stats are averages from the 50,000 simulations of Super Bowl XLIX. All props courtesy of Bovada.LV.

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Golf Prop

What will be higher on games played February 1st? Team Position Spread
Tiger Woods day 1 score at the Masters Golf Golfer Pick (+120)
Julian Edelman Receiving Yards NE WR Pick (-150)

In his career, Tiger Woods' round one scoring average is 72. In the Masters his first round scoring average has been 72. Since 2008, the world's former No. 1 golfer has dealt with reoccurring knee and back pain that has required multiple surgeries. Tiger has not won a major championship since 2008. Even with the lack of wins and the surgeries, Tiger has been consistent. In 2014, Woods participated in eight events and carded a round one average of 72.

Edelman has averaged 71.5 receiving yards over sixteen games this season. Of course none of those contests were against the Seahawks and the Legion of Boom, second in defensive passing efficiency.

Projected Yards: Edelman 61.6

Pick: Woods day 1 score

NBA Prop

What will be higher on games played February 1st? Team Position Spread
Marshawn Lynch Receiving Yards SEA RB Pick (-115)
Dwayne Wade Points MIA SG Pick (-115)

Dwayne Wade is averaging 21.4 points in 35 games this season. Sunday, the Heat travel to Beantown to play the Celtics. Wade's scoring average also drops when playing on the road. This season he is averaging 19.9 points per game away from Miami but 23.0 points when playing in South Beach.

In a Pick'em we will lean toward Lynch. Of course, Wade has missed ten games this season due to injury or rest, there is a chance he could miss this game and if that were to happen then this prop bet does not count.

Projected Yards: Lynch 22.1

Pick: Lynch Receiving Yards

NHL Prop

What will be higher on games played February 1st? Team Position Spread
Sidney Crosby Points PIT C Pick (-115)
Russell Wilson TD Passes SEA QB Pick (-115)

Crosby has averaged 1.38 points (Goals + Assists) in 593 games over ten years. This season the reigning Hart Memorial Trophy winner (NHL MVP) is averaging 1.19 points per game.

Projected Touchdowns: Wilson 1.3

Pick: Wilson Touchdown Passes

MMA Prop

What will be higher on games played February 1st? Team Position Spread
Amount of minutes in the Silva vs. Diaz fight UFC Fighters Pick (-115)
LeGarrette Blount Rushing Attempts NE RB Pick (-115)

The over/under for total rushing attempts in the Super Bowl for Blount is set at 14.5. A non-championship mixed martial arts contest consists of three five-minute rounds. Therefore this prop is set at a pick'em.

We anticipate that Blount will rush the ball more than 15 times, the maximum length of an MMA fight, giving value to backing Blount in this prop bet.

Projected Rushing Attempts: Blount 16.4

Pick: Blount Rushing Attempts

Premier League Prop

What will be higher on games played February 1st? Team Position Spread
Goals scored in Arsenal vs. Aston Villa Soccer Team -0.5 (-130)
Tom Brady TD Passes NE QB +0.5 (EVEN)

As of writing this article, Arsenal is averaging 1.77 goals for and 1.14 goals against through 22 games. In the same number of games Aston Villa is averaging 0.5 goals for and 1.14 goals against.

While both soccer clubs are above average, ranking in the top ten in goals allowed in the Barclays Premier League, Tom Brady is not expected to have a big game against the Seahawks.

Projected Touchdowns: Brady 1.4

Pick: Goal scores in Arsenal vs. Aston Villa

College Basketball Prop

What will be higher on games played February 1st? Team Position Spread
Total Points Travis Trice MSU G Pick (-115)
Total 1st Half Points by the Patriots NE Team Pick (-115)

Travis Trice is averaging 14.3 points per game for Michigan State. The Spartans senior guard has stepped up his scoring in Big Ten games averaging nearly 17 points in conference play. Trice has scored ten of fewer points in just eight games this season.

Projected 1st Half Points: Patriots 10.5

Pick: Total Points Travis Trice