West Coast (03/05/14)

By John Ewing
Championship Week – which teams will win automatic bids to the NCAA tournament? We simulated each conference tournament to find out.


 
Conference tournaments are the unofficial start of March Madness. Over the next two weeks, single-elimination tournaments will be played with automatic bids to the NCAA tournament at stake.
 
We have simulated each conference tournament using our Bracket Simulator to predict which teams will punch their ticket to the Big Dance. The Bracket Simulator is a free tool that gives you the power to simulate the postseason for any sport. Create your own bracket now!
 
PredictionMachine.com has been very profitable in conference tournaments. All-time on the site, "normal" or better conference tournament picks are 84-54 (61% ATS and O/U). For access to conference tournament picks, click here.
 
When: March 6-11
 
Where: Las Vegas, NV
 
The automatic bid goes to: Gonzaga (38.1%)
 
The Zags won their 13th regular season WCC title in the last 14 years. The Bulldogs should receiver an at-large bid regardless of the outcome of the conference tournament. Gonzaga has either won or been the runner-up in every WCC tournament since 1998.
 
And if they lose: Brigham Young (21.3%)
 
BYU needs a deep tournament run to secure an invitation to the Big Dance. The Cougars are talented enough on offense (26th in offensive efficiency) to win their first WCC Tournament title but rank outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency.
 
Bid Thieves:
 
Saint Mary’s: The Gaels have reached the title game of the WCC Tournament in each of the last five years, but most likely will need to win it all to keep their two year NCAA Tournament streak alive.
 
Odds to win the West Coast (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament) 

Seed Team Final Title Game Champ.
1 Gonzaga 78.3 57.2 38.1
8/9 Pacific/Santa Clara 21.7 9.3 3.0
4 Saint Mary's 64.6 24.5 13.2
5 Pepperdine 35.4 9.2 3.7
3 San Francisco 60.8 26.6 10.7
6 San Diego 39.2 14.2 3.7
2 BYU 65.3 42.3 21.3
7/10 Portland/Loyola-Mary. 34.7 17.0 6.5