SWAC (03/10/14)

By John Ewing
Championship Week – which teams will win automatic bids to the NCAA tournament? We simulated each conference tournament to find out.

Conference tournaments are the unofficial start of March Madness. Over the next two weeks, single-elimination tournaments will be played with automatic bids to the NCAA tournament at stake.
We have simulated each conference tournament using our Bracket Simulator to predict which teams will punch their ticket to the Big Dance. The Bracket Simulator is a free tool that gives you the power to simulate the postseason for any sport. Create your own bracket now!
PredictionMachine.com has been very profitable in conference tournaments. All-time on the site, "normal" or better conference tournament picks are 84-54 (61% ATS and O/U), through 2013. For access to conference tournament picks, click here.
When: March 11-15
Where: Houston, TX
The automatic bid goes to: Southern U. (38.6%)
This could be awkward. Southern University is ineligible to play in the NCAA Tournament due to APR penalties, yet the SWAC has allowed them and three other teams to participate in the conference postseason. Second place might be good enough to earn the conference's automatic bid.
And if they lose: Texas Southern (16.4%)
The Tigers enter the SWAC Tournament on a six game winning streak that includes defeating Southern U. on the road in the regular season finale. If any team can save the conference from a potentially embarrassing situation it is Texas Southern.
Bid Thief:
Alabama State: What is the definition of a bid thief? The Hornets are No. 293 in our Power Rankings.
Odds to win the SWAC (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament) 

Seed Team Final Title Game Champ.
1 Southern U.  80.5  56.7  38.6
2 Texas Southern  58.9  34.6  16.4
3 Alabama St.  52.4  23.5  9.9
7 Jackson State  32.3  18.0  8.0
5 Alabama A&M  52.0  18.3  7.9
4 Arkansas-PB  48.1  17.5  7.5
6 Alcorn St.  47.6  19.1  6.7
8 Prairie View  15.5  6.0  2.2
10 Grambling  8.8  4.9  2.2
9 MVSU  4.0  1.5  0.6