SEC (03/09/14)

By John Ewing
Championship Week – which teams will win automatic bids to the NCAA tournament? We simulated each conference tournament to find out.


 
Conference tournaments are the unofficial start of March Madness. Over the next two weeks, single-elimination tournaments will be played with automatic bids to the NCAA tournament at stake.
 
We have simulated each conference tournament using our Bracket Simulator to predict which teams will punch their ticket to the Big Dance. The Bracket Simulator is a free tool that gives you the power to simulate the postseason for any sport. Create your own bracket now!
 
PredictionMachine.com has been very profitable in conference tournaments. All-time on the site, "normal" or better conference tournament picks are 84-54 (61% ATS and O/U), through 2013. For access to conference tournament picks, click here.
 
When: March 12-16
 
Where: Atlanta, GA
 
The automatic bid goes to: Florida (44.0%)
 
The Gators swept the conference finishing a perfect 18-0 and propelling Florida to No. 1 in our Power Rankings. It would be surprising if the SEC title does not end up in The Swamp. 
 
And if they lose: Tennessee (18.5%)
 
The Volunteers are playing their best basketball of the season and enter the SEC Tournament on a four game winning streak. Tennessee’s defense has been stellar limiting opponents to 61.8 points/game (17th in the nation).
 
Bid Thief:
 
LSU: The Tigers have no business winning the SEC Tournament, let alone, participating in the NCAA Tournament. However, LSU got a favorable draw being on the opposite side of Florida/Tennessee in the bracket. If an underdog does not win the SEC Tournament, Florida/Kentucky may be the only teams dancing.  
 
Odds to win the SEC (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament)
 
Seed Team Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
1 Florida 100.0 81.2 57.4 44.0
4 Tennessee 100.0 72.1 28.9 18.5
2 Kentucky 100.0 68.1 46.9 17.6
3 Georgia 100.0 54.1 20.5 5.5
7 LSU 56.2 19.4 11.6 3.1
5 Arkansas 63.7 19.9 5.7 2.9
8 Missouri 61.4 14.3 5.7 2.6
6 Mississippi 52.7 24.8 7.9 2.1
10 Alabama 43.9 12.6 6.2 1.5
11 Vanderbilt 33.3 14.8 4.9 0.8
9 Texas A&M 38.6 4.5 1.0 0.4
14 Mississippi State 14.0 6.3 2.1 0.4
12 Auburn 19.3 4.3 0.8 0.3
13 South Carolina 17.1 3.8 0.7 0.3