3 Up 3 Down (College Week 7)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
A review of the week that was with a look at three college football teams that stood out for good reasons and three whose weekends did not turn out as successfully as anticipated.

Three Up

Baylor Bears

2014 Record: Straight-Up 6-0, Against-the-Spread 4-1-1

The headline on ESPN read, “Interception Return Busts Game Wide Open.” TCU's Marcus Mallet had picked off Bryce Petty and returned the interception 49 yards for a touchdown. The Horned Frogs led 58-37 with just over 11 minutes left in the fourth.

Amazingly, trailing by three touchdowns, Baylor still had a 15 percent chance of winning.

The front-page storyline now reads, “Baylor scores final 24, stuns TCU.” Baylor's Chris Callahan kicked a 28-yard field goal as time expired to seal the rally and give the Bears an impressive win.

Baylor has now won 13 straight games at home.

Next Up: West Virginia

The total has gone over in four of Baylor's last five games.
West Virginia is 2-5 against-the-spread in its last seven home games.

Georgia Bulldogs

2014 Record: Straight-Up 5-1, Against-the-Spread 3-3

Fact: Todd Gurley was suspended indefinitely for alleged rule violations involving autographs and memorabilia.

Fact: Georgia's back-up running back, Nick Chubb, rushed 38 times for 143 yards and one touchdown against Mizzou.

The Bulldogs, powered by freshman Chubb, ran through Missouri. Georgia blanked the Tigers 34-0. The shutout was the first for the Dawgs against a ranked opponent in school history.

No Gurley, no problem? Perhaps. However, before Saturday's showdown Missouri ranked 72nd in defensive rushing efficiency and was allowing 145 rushing yards per game. Georgia might miss Gurley, the former 8/5 Heisman favorite, against the stronger SEC rushing defenses.

Next Up: Arkansas

The total has gone over in five of Georgia's last six games.
Arkansas has lost six of seven games against Georgia.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

2014 Record: Straight-Up 6-0, Against-the-Spread 5-1

Another Mississippi State-ment. In consecutive weeks the Bulldogs have beat LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn. Mississippi State is just the fifth team in history to beat three straight AP top-10 teams (per ESPN Stats and Info).

The Bulldogs scored 21 quick points, aided by Auburn turning the ball over on the Tigers' first two offensive possessions, and were 73 percent likely to win with six minutes left in the first.

Dak Prescott had his fourth game of throwing for 200 yards and rushing for 100 yards. The Heisman favorite ran for two touchdowns and threw a third. Prescott started the season as a 33/1 longshot, the Bulldogs quarterback is now the frontrunner at 2/1.

Next Up: Kentucky

The total has gone under in five of Mississippi States last seven games against Kentucky.
Kentucky is 1-4 against-the-spread in its last five games at home against Mississippi State.

Three Down

UCLA Bruins

2014 Record: Straight-Up 4-2, Against-the-Spread 1-5

The Bruins trailed 42-10 at the start of the fourth. UCLA scored three touchdowns in garbage time to make the score look respectable but a comeback was never possible.

UCLA had high hopes before the season. Two consecutive losses have all but knocked the Bruins out of the College Football Playoff picture.

The tension and pressure on the program boiled over on the sidelines. Head Coach Jim Mora and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich got into a heated exchange after Oregon went up early.

Oregon, after winning 42-30, has not lost back-to-back games in seven years.

Next Up: California

The total has gone under in eight of UCLA's last nine games on the road.
Cal has taken four of the last six games against UCLA.

Texas A&M Aggies

2014 Record: Straight-Up 5-2, Against-the-Spread 2-5

After starting the season 5-0, the Aggies have now lost two straight. Kenny Hill looked impressive at times throwing for 401 yards and two touchdowns. However, the Heisman candidate looked like a freshman at times too. Hill threw two interceptions and fumbled once, two of the turnovers setup scores for Mississippi State.

Texas A&M entered the game leading the SEC in scoring (47.8 points per game). The Aggies were shut out in the first half. It was the first time a team coached by Kevin Sumlin was held scoreless in the first half.

Four of Texas A&M's final five opponents are ranked or were ranked at one point this season.

Next Up: Alabama

The total has gone under in four of Texas A&M's last six games.
Alabama is 1-7 against-the-spread in its last eight games.

Arizona Wildcats

2014 Record: Straight-Up 5-1, Against-the-Spread 3-3

The Wildcats trailed 28-13 in the fourth, Arizona had a 20 percent chance of winning. After the Wildcats used a Hail Mary to beat Cal and shocked Oregon in Eugene, the Arizona faithful had reason to believe that Rich Rod could rally his team.

Arizona scored two fourth quarter touchdowns and recovered an onside kick with a minute to play to setup another improbable win. The Wildcats expected win probability had increased to 53 percent before the game-winning field goal attempt.

After missing two previous kicks, Casey Skowron had a chance to be the hero. Skowron's 36-yard field goal went wide right.

Halfway through the season there are no undefeated Pac-12 teams.

Next Up: Washington State

Arizona is 2-5 against-the-spread in its last seven games on the road.
The total has gone over in eight of Washington State's last nine games at home.