3 Up 3 Down (College Week 4)

By John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
A review of the week that was with a look at three college football teams that stood out for good reasons and three whose weekends did not turn out as successfully as anticipated.



Three Up

Florida State Seminoles

2014 Record: Straight-Up 3-0, Against-the-Spread 0-3

Survive and advance. With Heisman quarterback Jameis Winston on the sideline, suspended for “offensive and vulgar” comments, the Noles needed overtime for a 23-17 win over Clemson.

Florida State struggled offensively with backup quarterback Sean Maguire under center. The Noles were outgained 407 to 318 in total yards and lost the turnover margin as Maguire threw two interceptions in his first collegiate start.

Nonetheless, the defending champs are undefeated and have won a school record 19 straight games dating back to 2012. The winner of this game has reached the ACC Championship each of the last five years.

Next Up: North Carolina State

Trends
The total has gone over in 5 of FSU's last 6 games on the road.
NC State is 4-2 straight-up in its last six games at home against FSU.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

2014 Record: Straight-Up 4-0, Against-the-Spread 3-1

Prior to this matchup, LSU had won 14 straight against Mississippi State and the Tigers had held their opponents scoreless for nine straight quarters. The Bulldogs rushed for 302 yards and accumulated 570 yards of total offense in a 34-29 win over LSU, the Dogs were projected to win for 90 percent of the game.

Mississippi State was unranked entering this game but the Bulldogs were 10th in our Power Rankings with a top ten offense. Quarterback Dak Prescott threw for 268 yards and rushed for another 105 yards and three touchdowns.

The Bulldogs snapped a 15 game losing streak to ranked opponents.

Next Up: Texas A&M

Trends
The total has gone over in 4 of Texas A&M's last 6 games on the road.
Mississippi State is 5-1 straight-up in its last six games at home.

Wisconsin Badgers

2014 Record: Straight-Up 2-1, Against-the-Spread 2-0

The Badgers set a Big Ten record rushing for 644 yards in a 68-17 blowout of Bowling Green. Wisconsin running back Melvin Gordon fumbled on his first carry but rebounded rushing for a school record five touchdowns on 13 carries for 253 yards (19.5 yards per carry).

Wisconsin is the fourth Big Ten team to rush for at least 600 yards and the first to accomplish the feat since 1946. The Badgers have rushed for 500+ yards four times since 2012, twice as many as any other FBS team.

Next Up: South Florida

Trends
South Florida is 7-13-1 against-the-spread in its last 21 games.
Wisconsin is 1-5 against-the-spread in its last six games.

Three Down



Missouri Tigers

2014 Record: Straight-Up 3-1, Against-the-Spread 2-2

With Indiana facing a 4th and 6 at the Hoosiers' own 29-yard line, Missouri leading 27-24 with 1:17 left in the 4th, Mizzou was 90 percent likely to win. Pass interference gave Indiana a first down, and then on the next play, a 44-yard run by Tevin Coleman and a 15-yard penalty (facemask) made the Hoosiers 57 percent likely to win with the ball on the Missouri 7-yard line.

Two plays later Indiana scored the game-winning touchdown with 22 seconds remaining.

Missouri allowed 11 sacks and committed 10 penalties allowing Indiana to win just its fourth game against a ranked non-conference opponent on the road.

Perhaps the Tigers got caught looking ahead, Missouri travels to South Carolina next week before hosting Georgia in key SEC East battles.

Next Up: South Carolina

Trends
The total has gone over in four of Missouri's last six games.
South Carolina is 23-1 straight-up in its last 24 games at home.

Clemsoning


Clemsoning – the act of delivering an inexplicably disappointing performance, is alive and well. Clemson failed to take advantage of numerous opportunities to beat the No. 1 team in the country.

Two missed field goals, a fumble late in regulation and a questionable call in overtime allowed Florida State to escape with a narrow victory. Clemson reached the red zone on seven of 15 drives but scored on just three of those possessions.

#Clemsoning was trending on Twitter Saturday night.

Michigan Wolverines

2014 Record: Straight-Up 2-2, Against-the-Spread 1-3

Michigan suffered a 26-10 home loss to Utah. The Wolverines have handled weaker opponents this season defeating Appalachian State and Miami (OH) with ease. However, against tougher competition Michigan has struggled.

The Wolverines were shut out against Notre Dame and failed to score an offensive touchdown against Utah.

Michigan started 19-0 at home under Brady Hoke but has lost three of the team's last five home games. The Wolverines are just 3-7 in its last ten games with at least four of those losses coming by double-digits.

Next Up: Minnesota

Trends
The total has gone under in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games.
Michigan has won five in a row against Minnesota.