3 Up 3 Down (College Week 11)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
A review of the week that was with a look at three college football teams that stood out for good reasons and three whose weekends did not turn out as successfully as anticipated.

Three Up

Baylor Bears

2014 Record: Straight-Up 8-1, Against-the-Spread 6-2-1

Leading 14-3 after the first quarter, Oklahoma had a 60 percent chance of hurdling Baylor to extend its streak to thirteen straight at home over the Bears. The defending Big 12 champions responded by scoring the final 45 points of the game and Baylor walloped the Sooners 48-14 in a decisive Big 12 showdown.

Baylor had lost its previous 37 road games against ranked opponents dating back to 1991. The Bears have now won three of the last four meetings with the Sooners.

Baylor entered the contest ranked 12th in the most recent College Football Playoff rankings. Will beating Oklahoma launch Baylor into the top 10? Perhaps, of the three previous teams to defeat the Sooners by 30 or more points in the Bob Stoops era, two went on to win the National Championship that season (ESPN Stats & Info).

Next Up: Oklahoma State

The total has gone under in 5 of Oklahoma State last 7 games when playing Baylor.
Baylor is 16-1 straight-up in its last 17 games at home.

Alabama Crimson Tide

2014 Record: Straight-Up 8-1, Against-the-Spread 3-6

Alabama defeated LSU in Death Valley 20-13 in overtime. The Tide needed to drive 55 yards in the final 50 seconds just to attempt a field goal that would force overtime. Before that drive Bama was 35 percent likely to win.

In overtime, Alabama scored the go-ahead touchdown on a six yard pass to DeAndrew White. Bama isn't afraid of Death Valley, since 1970 Alabama is 18-4-1 on the road against LSU.

Alabama is now in second place in the SEC West. Bama plays Mississippi State, the division leading and No. 1 team in the country, next Saturday.

Next Up: Mississippi State

The total has gone over in 4 of Mississippi State's last 6 games.
Alabama has won five straight against Mississippi State.

Oregon Ducks

2014 Record: Straight-Up 9-1, Against-the-Spread 6-4

Oregon thumped Utah 51-27 as Marcus Mariota threw three touchdowns passes and ran for another score. The Heisman favorite has totaled four or more touchdowns in seven of ten games this season.

The night could have turned out differently if not for an unusual play. The Utes thought they were going to go up 14-0 in the second quarter following a long touchdown reception by Kaelin Clay. The only problem, Clay dropped the ball a yard before crossing the goal line. Oregon returned the fumble a 100 yards for a touchdown.

The win clinched the Pac-12 North for the Ducks and guarantees that Oregon will be in the conference championship game.

Next Up: Colorado

Oregon is 14-1 straight-up in its last 15 games at home.
Colorado is 8-17 against-the-spread in its last 25 games on the road.

Three Down

Auburn Tigers

2014 Record: Straight-Up 7-2, Against-the-Spread 4-5

The defending SEC champion and the national runner-up Tigers were pretty lucky in 2013. There was The Prayer at Jordan-Hare and the Kick Six that beat Georgia and Alabama in consecutive weeks to propel Auburn into the SEC Championship game. Against Texas A&M Saturday night, the bounces, specifically two late fumbles, didn't go the Tigers' way.

Auburn trailed 35-17 at the half but had greater than a 40 percent chance of rallying for the win. Twice the Tigers were driving for a go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth and twice the Tigers fumbled away the opportunity.

The turnovers helped Texas A&M drop Auburn 41-38 and the Tigers most likely fumbled away their playoff chances.

Next Up: Georgia

The total has gone over in 12 of Auburn's last 18 games.
The total has gone over in 8 of Georgia's last 9 games.

Michigan State Spartans

2014 Record: Straight-Up 7-2, Against-the-Spread 5-4

Michigan State was leading 21-14 when Ohio State fumbled a kickoff in the second quarter to give the Spartans the ball in the red zone with an opportunity to take a two-touchdown lead. Sparty was 72 percent likely to win with less than five minutes remaining in the first half.

Michigan State did not take advantage of the opportunity as a penalty erased a touchdown and the Spartans missed a field goal. On the next play Ohio State scored a 79-yard touchdown to tie the game. The Buckeyes scored another long touchdown to take a 28-21 lead at halftime.

In the final five minutes of the first half Michigan State went from leading 21-14 to trailing 28-21. The Spartan's expected win probability decreased from 72 percent to 45 percent. Michigan State never recovered as the Spartans lost 49-37 in East Lansing.

Ohio State rolled up 568 yards of offense against Michigan State's top ten defense. The Buckeyes are 21-0 in Big Ten regular season games under Urban Meyer. After losing starting quarterback Braxton Miller to start the season Ohio State finds itself in the mix for the College Football Playoff.

Next Up: Maryland

The total has gone over in 10 of Michigan State's last 11 games.
Maryland is 2-6 straight-up in its last 8 games at home.

Kansas State Wildcats

2014 Record: Straight-Up 7-2, Against-the-Spread 6-3

Entering this game Kansas State's defense was leading the Big 12 allowing 321 yards and 18.6 points per game. TCU rolled up 553 total yards and 41 points against the Wildcats.

TCU's Trevone Boykin threw for 219 yards and rushed for a career high 123 yards on the ground including three scores. Boykin flipped into the end zone on his second rushing score helping the Horned Frogs beat the Wildcats 41-20.

Kansas State is now 2-48 on the road against top ten teams and is 0-10 in matchups with top ten teams (ESPN Stats & Info).

Next Up: West Virginia

The total has gone over in 5 of Kansas State's last 6 road games.
The total has gone under in five straight WVU games.