3 Up 3 Down (College Week 10)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
A review of the week that was with a look at three college football teams that stood out for good reasons and three whose weekends did not turn out as successfully as anticipated.

Three Up

Auburn Tigers

2014 Record: Straight-Up 7-1, Against-the-Spread 4-4

Auburn defeated Ole Miss 35-31 in what amounts to a knockout game for admission to the College Football Playoff. Tigers' quarterback Nick Marshall threw for 254 yards and a touchdown and also rushed the ball for 50 yards and two more scores.

Ole Miss had opportunities to win the game but fumbled the ball twice inside the Auburn 10-yard line in the fourth. The second turnover was originally ruled a touchdown but the replay showed the receiver had lost the ball before crossing the goal line. That same catch and run by Laquon Treadwell resulted in a broken leg for the Rebels' leading receiver.

When Auburn recovered the fumble in the end zone the Tigers' expected win probability increased from 57.9 percent to 80.9 percent, the largest play-to-play swing in the game.

Next Up: Texas A&M

Texas A&M is 12-4 straight-up in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone over in 8 of Auburn's last 10 home games.


Before the action in Week 10 of college football kicked off, we projected that there was nearly an 80 percent chance that there would be no undefeated teams from the Power 5 conferences at the end of the year. That prediction almost came true in one week.

Florida State rallied from a 21-0 deficit and a win probability of 25 percent to avoid a letdown in Louisville. Mississippi State fell behind Arkansas 10-0 early but got a career high 331 passing yards from quarterback Dak Prescott to win its 11th straight game 17-10.

Both playoff hopefuls didn't take a lead until the fourth quarter. The close calls may continue for both teams as the season plays out.

UCLA Bruins

2014 Record: Straight-Up 7-2, Against-the-Spread 2-7

After consecutive home losses last month UCLA beat Arizona 17-7. The Bruins have reinserted themselves into the Pac-12 South race. UCLA is looking to return to the conference championship game for the third time in its four year history.

The Bruins overcame 11 penalties for 118 yards thanks in large part to quarterback Brett Hundley. UCLA's signal caller threw for 189 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 131 yards.

UCLA was always the projected winner, even trailing at the half.

Next Up: Washington

The total has gone under in 9 of UCLA's last 11 games on the road.
The total has gone under in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing UCLA.

Three Down

Georgia Bulldogs

2014 Record: Straight-Up 6-2, Against-the-Spread 4-4

Florida shocked Georgia, a top 5 team in our Power Rankings before the loss Saturday. The Gators defeated the Bulldogs 38-20 ending the Bulldogs three game winning streak in the series.

Before Saturday's victory, Florida had lost 10 of its past 13 games dating back to last year.

Georgia looked set to win the SEC East and was the second favorite (7/1) behind Alabama to win the National Championship according to Bovada.lv. The loss to Florida has changed all of that.

The Bulldogs now trail Missouri in the SEC East standings with a showdown looming against Auburn in two weeks.

Next Up: Kentucky

Georgia is 6-11-2 against-the-spread in its last 19 games.
Kentucky is 1-7 straight-up in its last 8 games at home against Georgia.

East Carolina Pirates

2014 Record: Straight-Up 6-2, Against-the-Spread 3-5

East Carolina lost to Temple 20-10 ending a five game winning streak. Outside of Notre Dame, the Pirates were the only other team from a non-Power 5 conference to be listed in the College Football Playoff rankings before Saturday's game.

Temple defeated a ranked opponent for the first time in 16 years. The Owls enjoyed incredible fumble luck winning just the program's third victory against a top 25 team. Temple forced and recovered five East Carolina fumbles as well as recovered all four balls they put on the ground.

Next Up: Cincinnati

East Carolina is 1-4 against-the-spread in its last 5 games.
Cincinnati is 2-4 against-the-spread in its last 6 games at home.

West Virginia Mountaineers

2014 Record: Straight-Up 6-3, Against-the-Spread 5-3

Jaden Oberkrom booted a 37-yard field goal as time expired to give TCU a 31-30 victory. The Horned Frogs will begin preparing for a marquee matchup in the Big 12 against Kansas State next week while WVU will be left wondering what might have been.

The Mountaineers held TCU to a season low in yards and limited the nation's leading scoring offense to its second lowest point total of the season.

West Virginia led 27-14 midway through the third quarter and was 76 percent likely to win in the fourth. However, after picking up 17 first downs in the first three quarters of the game, WVU failed to extend drives in the fourth. TCU scored the final ten points of the contest.

Next Up: Texas

The total has gone under in 5 straight West Virginia games.
The total has gone under in 8 of Texas' last 10 games.