3 Up 3 Down (College Week 1)

By John Ewing

PredictionMachine.com’s Manager of Research and Analytics, John Ewing, reviews the week that was with a look at three college football teams that stood out for good reasons and three whose weekends did not turn out as successfully as anticipated.

Three Up

Clemson Tigers
2013 Record: Straight-Up 1-0, Against-the-Spread 1-0
 
In the only matchup of top 10 teams, Clemson and Georgia did not disappoint. The Tigers, slight dogs at +1.5, knocked off their second straight top-10 opponent from the vaunted SEC (defeated LSU 25-24 in the Chick-fil-A Bowl). Tajh Boyd shined throwing for 270 yards and 3 touchdowns while rushing for two more scores. After a strong performance, Boyd saw his Heisman odds improve from 14/1 to 8/1.
 
A botched snap cost Georgia a gimme field goal late in the 3rd quarter that would have tied the game. However, before you blame the long snapper for the loss you should know that Georgia’s winning percentage only changed from 49.6% to 47.8% after the special teams mishap.
 
Next Up: South Carolina State, an FCS program, possibly a Clemsoning?
 
Trends
Clemson is 15-2 straight-up in its last 17 games at home
South Carolina State is winless in its last 10 games against FBS programs
 
LSU Tigers
2013 Record: Straight-Up 1-0, Against-the-Spread 1-0
 
LSU and Les Miles proved once again that they are never rebuilding, just reloading. The Tigers lost 11 players to the NFL draft, 8 on the defensive side of the ball. LSU scored 37 points against a TCU defense that ranked 5th in our Power Rankings. LSU ran 80 plays, 26 more than the Horned Frogs.
 
LSU was 25/1 to win the BCS title before the season began. The Tigers were 12/1 to win the Southeastern Conference, the 6th best odds. After an impressive win Saturday, coupled with a Georgia loss, LSU’s BCS odds moved to 20/1.
 
Next Up: LSU hosts UAB
 
Trends
LSU is 22-3 straight-up in its last 25 home games
The total has gone over in 7 of UAB’s last 10 games on the road
 
Washington Huskies
2013 Record: Straight-Up 1-0, Against-the-Spread 1-0
 
Washington returned 20 starters including quarterback Keith Price. A fifth-year senior, Price, was hoping to return to his 2011 form when he threw for a school-record 33 touchdowns after a disappointing 2012 campaign. Price looked elite completing 74% of his passes for 324 yards and 2 touchdowns.
 
The 38-6 shellacking was the worst loss in Chris Petersen’s tenure as Boise State head coach. This loss also marks the first time the Broncos failed to score a touchdown since 1997.
 
Next Up: Washington travels to the Land of Lincoln and takes on Illinois
 
Trends
Washington is 3-8 against-the-spread in last 11 games on the road
Illinois is 1-5-1 straight-up in last 7 games at home
 
Three Down



Kansas State Wildcats
2013 Record: Straight-Up 0-1, Against-the-Spread 0-1
 
The defending Big 12 Champions, a team that was ranked No. 1 in the BCS standings in Week 12 last season, were upset 24-21 by ­FCS program North Dakota State. The Bison dominated the Wildcats on the ground rushing for 215 yards and converting 10-of-17 attempts on 3rd down, compared to KSU’s 2-of-10.
 
The loss came as a surprise to some; however, North Dakota State is the two-time defending FCS National Champion.
 
Adding insult to injury, Kansas State paid North Dakota State $350,000 to come to Manhattan. The appearance fee paid for NDSU coach’s salary of $206,000.
 
Next Up: Kansas State hosts Louisiana-Lafayette
 
Trends
The total has gone over in 6 of Kansas State’s last 7 home games
The total has gone under in 4 of Louisiana-Lafayette’s last 5 games on the road

Oregon State Beavers
2013 Record: Straight-Up 0-1, Against-the-Spread 0-1
 
Everyone knows most teams begin their season with a slate of cupcake teams before the heavy lifting of conference play begins. Unfortunately, cupcakes sometimes bite back. Eastern Washington stunned Oregon State, defeating the Beavers 49-46 to become just the third FCS school to beat a ranked FBS program.
 
Eastern Washington quarterback Vernon Adams threw for 411 yards and rushed for 107 more as the Eagles dropped 625 yards of total offense on the Beavers.
 
Next Up: Oregon State welcomes the Rainbow Warriors from Hawaii
 
Trends
The total has gone under in 4 of Hawaii’s last 6 games on the road
Oregon State is 2-4 against-the-spread in its last 6 games
 
Iowa State Cyclones
2013 Record: Straight-Up 0-1, Against-the-Spread 0-1
 
In the last few seasons the Cyclones have played spoiler to ranked opponents. For three straight years Iowa State has defeated a top-25 team on the road (No. 15 TCU in 2012, No. 20 Texas Tech in 2011, No. 19 Texas in 2010). Plus, they had a double-overtime victory over Oklahoma State that cost the Cowboys a shot at a BCS title in 2011.
 
This time the shoe was on the other foot as Northern Iowa downed Iowa State 28-20. It was the first opening season loss in five years for the Cyclones.
 
Next Up: Battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy, Iowa State hosts Iowa
 
Trends
The total has gone under in 4 of Iowa’s last 6 games when playing ISU on the road
The total has gone under in 5 of Iowa State’s last 6 games at home