Win Total Performance (06/19/14)

By John Ewing
Which college football teams consistently outperform or underperform Las Vegas' season win totals?



Season win totals set the expectation for how teams will perform in the fall. How have college football teams faired compared to their season win totals? We gathered data for the last five years to see which teams have exceeded or fell short of their season win totals.

Highlights
  • News Flash - Alabama is good – the Crimson Tide are just one of two teams (Boise State) to have an average season win total line of 10 or more games in each of the last five years. Furthermore, Nick Saban's team has consistently outperformed the bookmakers' expectations with a plus five in differential between actual wins and the season win total line, the sixth best mark among teams we tracked.
  • The Bookmakers nemesis – Oregon is the only team to have its win total increase by at least a half game in each of the last five years. The Ducks went over their season win total every year from 2009 to 2012.
  • It is hard to be a Bulls fan – South Florida's average win total is just over seven wins per season, fifth worst among teams we tracked. Even with the low expectations, the Bulls have managed to lose 11.5 more games than expected, a mark nearly twice as bad as the next closest team.
  • No team has exceeded their expectations in each of the last five years, just as no team's win total has went under five straight years.
  • Oregon, South Carolina, and Ohio State have gone over their season win totals in four of the last five years.
  • Tennessee is the only team to have failed to exceed expectations each season. The Volunteers' best result was a push in 2010 with six wins.

Season Win Total Records
Note: Results are for the over, reverse for the under record. Differential: the difference between actual wins and the season win total line over the last five years.

Team Over Record Differential Average Total
Ohio State 4-1 3.5 9.7
Oregon 4-1 6.0 9.6
South Carolina 4-0-1 5.0 8.2
Alabama 3-1-1 5.0 10.2
Boise State 3-1-1 2.0 10.2
Florida State 3-2 1.0 9.2
LSU 3-0-2 6.0 9.0
TCU 3-2 0.0 9.0
Wisconsin 3-1-1 3.5 8.9
Oklahoma State 3-1-1 6.0 8.2
Clemson 3-2 3.5 8.1
Penn State 3-2 2.0 7.8
Auburn 3-2 5.5 7.3
Missouri 3-2 5.5 7.1
UCLA 3-1-1 3.5 6.1
Oklahoma 2-2-1 -1.5 9.7
Virginia Tech 2-3 -2.0 9.4
Nebraska 2-2-1 -0.5 9.3
Florida 2-3 -6.0 9.2
USC 2-3 -3.0 9.0
Georgia 2-3 -2.0 8.8
West Virginia 2-2-1 -2.5 8.1
Miami 2-2-1 -2.0 8.0
Georgia Tech 2-3 -1.0 7.6
Iowa 2-3 -1.5 7.5
Oregon State 2-3 -3.5 6.9
Arizona 2-2-1 0.5 6.5
Texas 1-4 -6.0 9.4
Notre Dame 1-4 -1.5 8.5
Michigan 1-1-3 -1.0 7.6
South Florida 1-4 -11.5 7.1
Tennessee 0-3-2 -5.0 6.6