3 Up 3 Down (College Week 9)

By John Ewing
A review of the week that was with a look at three college football teams that stood out for good reasons and three whose weekends did not turn out as successfully as anticipated. 



Three Up
 
Oregon Ducks
2013 Record: Straight-Up 8-0, Against-the-Spread 6-1-1
 
Oregon and UCLA were tied at the half, which was the only time the Ducks did not lead after two quarters this season. Nevertheless, Oregon was still 66.0% likely to win the game. The Ducks went on to score 28 unanswered points in the second half to remain undefeated.
 
The Ducks’ win pushed them to No. 1 in our Power Rankings. This is the first time in 54 weeks that Alabama has not been No. 1 in our rankings. Oregon, according to our Undefeated Odds, has a 39.9% chance of finishing the season undefeated. Their matchup with Stanford in two weeks will go a long way to determining if the Ducks resume remains unblemished.
 
Next Up: The Pac-12 Game Of The Year against Stanford
 
Trends
The total has gone over in 5 of Oregon’s last 6 games on the road
The total has gone over in 7 of Stanford’s last 8 games when playing Oregon
 
Ohio State Buckeyes
2013 Record: Straight-Up 8-0, Against-the-Spread 5-2-1
 
The general consensus seemed to be that Ohio State was not living up to its ranking having feasted on weak opponents. The Buckeyes did their best to silence their critics with a 63-14 rout of Penn State. Ohio State was 99% likely to win with over nine minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter.
 
The Buckeyes’ 686 total yards was the most they had accumulated against a conference opponent. The 63 points were the most surrendered by Penn State and the lopsided victory was the worst in 114 years for the Nittany Lions.
 
Next Up: Winning streak extender against Purdue (1-6)
 
Trends
The total has gone under in 7 of Ohio State’s last 9 games when playing Purdue
The total has gone under in 4 of Purdue’s last 5 games at home vs. Ohio State
 
Duke Blue Devils
2013 Record: Straight-Up 6-2, Against-the-Spread 6-2
 
Every good (bad) thing must come to an end. Saturday ended an era of futility for Duke against ranked teams. Before their win over Virginia Tech the Blue Devils had not beat an AP Top 25 team since 1994. Duke had not beat a ranked opponent on the road since 1971. The Blue Devils are bowl eligible for the second year in a row, an impressive feat considering, until last season, they hadn’t been to a bowl since 1994.
 
Crazy stat of the game: Duke is the first team since at least 2000 to win a game with a completion percentage below 30 percent and at least four interceptions (ESPN Stats & Info).
 
Next Up: NC State
 
Trends
The total has gone over in 4 of NC State’s last 5 games on the road
The total has gone over in 7 of Duke’s last 10 games at home


 
Three Down
 
Missouri Tigers
2013 Record: Straight-Up 7-1, Against-the-Spread 6-1-1
 
Mizzou was 93% likely to win with a 17-0 lead going into the 4th quarter.  The Tigers were 85% likely to win with South Carolina needing a touchdown on 4th and goal from the Mizzou 15-yard line. Somehow a hobbled Connor Shaw overcame these odds (with a little help from a kicker) to win and make the SEC East race more interesting.
 
Mizzou still controls its own SEC destiny with four conference games remaining but a shot at a national title seems to have slipped away in the overtime loss.
 
Next Up: A must win game at home against Tennessee
 
Trends
Tennessee is 2-4 against-the-spread in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone over in 8 of Missouri’s last 11 games
 
Texas Tech Red Raiders
2013 Record: Straight-Up 7-1, Against-the-Spread 5-3
 
Texas Tech, unranked before the season began, needed a win over the No. 15 Sooners to prove they deserved their No. 10 ranking in the BCS. Prior to the game against Oklahoma the Red Raiders had only beat one ranked opponent all season. Unfortunately, Texas Tech got behind early, committed turnovers and was never projected to win the game despite taking the lead late in the 3rd quarter.
 
The Red Raiders could still win the Big 12 but they are in the midst of the most difficult stretch in their schedule. Two of Tech’s remaining four opponents are ranked and their last game is against Texas (4-0 Big 12).
 
Next Up:  No. 18 Oklahoma State, can Tech bounce back vs. a ranked opponent?
 
Trends
Oklahoma State is 5-1 straight-up in its last 6 games when playing Texas Tech
The total has gone over in 4 of Texas Tech’s last 5 games
 
Oregon State Beavers
2013 Record: Straight-Up 6-2, Against-the-Spread 4-4
 
Oregon State quarterback Sean Mannion was held in check by the Stanford defense Saturday night. Mannion, the national leader in passing yards and touchdowns, managed just 271 yards through the air and one touchdown. This was the first game that Mannion had less than 350 yards passing all season.
 
Stanford’s defense was stout forcing four turnover on downs. Though the Beavers had a chance at the end to tie the game and force overtime, their comeback bid came up short.
 
Next Up:  USC, 2-1 since firing Lane Kiffin
 
Trends
USC is 0-5 against-the-spread in its last 5 games on the road at Oregon State
The total has gone over in 4 of Oregon State’s last 6 games