Change in Win Totals (05/21/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
First quarter win total review – which teams have surprised and disappointed?

And just like that a quarter of the 2015 MLB season is in the books. Which teams have surprised and disappointed thus far from a win total perspective?

The Astros averaged 104 losses over the last four seasons, now they reign over the American League. Houston's 27-14 record is good for a 5.5 game lead in the AL West. The ‘Stros were projected to win 74.1 games before the season started. After a hot start, Houston's projected win total is 85.2 games. The Astros have a 41% chance to win their division.

Unlike Houston, what the Los Angeles Dodgers have accomplished early in the season shouldn't shock anyone. The defending NL West champions were our second most likely World Series winner before the season started. While we estimated that the Dodgers would win more than 90 games in the preseason, LA's projected win total has jumped by six games. The Dodgers have the highest projected win total in baseball at 97.4 games.

Back east the Red Sox's season hasn't gone quite as planned. Boston was the bookmakers' favorite to win the AL East before the first pitch of the season. The Red Sox have struggled to score runs, ranking in the bottom half of the majors in runs produced. Though the team is only two games under .500, their expected win total has dropped nearly eight games. Boston is now projected to have a losing season.

There were 15 teams that were projected to have a .500 or better record in March. Now five teams (Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Angels, Pittsburgh Pirates, Seattle Mariners) have stumbled so badly out of the gate that they are projected to have losing records.

We will keep tracking each team's progress daily throughout the season. Teams that start hot can cool off and a bad beginning can be quickly forgotten with a winning streak. The season is still young and there is a lot of baseball to be played. Check out our Rest of Season projections daily for updated win totals and projected standings.

Note: Our "normal" or better 2015 Win Total Picks are projected to finish 6-3.

Change in Projected Win Totals

Team Preseason Proj. Wins Change In Win Total
Arizona Diamondbacks 70.6 74.9 +4.3
Atlanta Braves 72.3 74.9 +2.6
Baltimore Orioles 81.0 79.3 -1.7
Boston Red Sox 88.5 80.6 -7.9
Chicago Cubs 84.4 86.3 +1.9
Chicago White Sox 77.0 78.5 +1.5
Cincinnati Reds 74.7 74.4 -0.3
Cleveland Indians 85.1 78.8 -6.3
Colorado Rockies 74.3 73.3 -1
Detroit Tigers 84.5 86.8 +2.3
Houston Astros 74.1 85.2 +11.1
Kansas City Royals 85.2 89.8 +4.6
Los Angeles Angels 86.6 81.3 -5.3
Los Angeles Dodgers 91.7 97.4 +5.7
Miami Marlins 79.3 77.2 -2.1
Milwaukee Brewers 76.3 72.8 -3.5
Minnesota Twins 71.5 77.2 +5.7
New York Mets 78.6 81.6 +3
New York Yankees 82.0 84.9 +2.9
Oakland Athletics 80.1 77.5 -2.6
Philadelphia Phillies 71.7 69.3 -2.4
Pittsburgh Pirates 86.5 81.0 -5.5
San Diego Padres 83.2 83.2 0.0
San Francisco Giants 84.6 82.8 -1.8
Seattle Mariners 88.1 80.8 -7.3
St. Louis Cardinals 90.2 93.6 +3.4
Tampa Bay Rays 75.9 81.9 +6.0
Texas Rangers 77.0 70.2 -6.8
Toronto Blue Jays 82.0 79.8 -2.2
Washington Nationals 93.2 94.8 +1.6