Cards v. Astros (06/17/15)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
What is the chance of a Cardinals vs. Astros World Series?

The FBI is investigating the St. Louis Cardinals for allegedly hacking into the Houston Astros' internal database and attempting to steal player information.

Cardinal employees are accused of accessing proprietary statistics, key discussions about trades and scouting reports. The hack was successful reportedly because the passwords used for both the Cardinals and Astros' databases were the same. A scenario that is similar to an episode of Silicon Valley.

Major League Baseball is aware of the looming scandal and a possible SpyGate situation brewing in baseball. What are the odds that the Cardinals and Astros face each other in the World Series?

Both clubs currently lead their respective divisions. St. Louis has a six game advantage in the NL Central while Houston is enjoying a 2.5 game lead in the AL West.

The Cardinals have reached the National League Championship Series in each of the past four seasons. The ‘Stros are the surprise of baseball season.

After 50,000 simulations of the 2015 MLB season, St. Louis reaches the playoffs 98.9 percent of the time and wins the World Series 14.0 percent of the time, the second most likely championship team behind the Los Angeles Dodgers (24.3 percent).

Houston is also a likely to reach the postseason. The Astros are 52.1 percent likely to win the division and have a 65.3 percent chance to make the playoffs. Houston has the fifth best (4.9 percent) chance to win the World Series.

The odds that the Cardinals and Astros square off in the World Series are 3.2 percent.

If these two teams do meet in the World Series, the Cardinals would be 63.0 percent likely to win. The most likely outcome would be St. Louis in seven games.

There isn't a great chance of St. Louis facing Houston, a team it allegedly hacked, on baseball's biggest stage but letting the teams settle it on the field would be a great way to end the scandal.

Team St. Louis Cardinals Houston Astros
Record 43-21 38-28
Playoff Probability 98.9% 65.3%
Win World Series 14.0% 4.9%

World Series Wins by Game

Team In 4 In 5 In 6 In 6
Houston 3.8 9.2 12.6 11.4
St. Louis 9.8 12.7 20 20.5