Bracketology & Odds (05/30/13)
Comparing Bracketology to the bookmaker’s lines, does the seeding match the odds?
Does the seeding match each team's odds? We look at Joe Lunardi’s most recent Bracketology to get a feel for next year’s March Madness.
The oddsmakers and Lunardi do not see eye to eye on each team.
- Kansas (15/2) and Duke (10/1) are both 2-seeds even though they are the 2nd and 4th favorites respectively to win it all.
- The Midwest would be the ‘Region of Death’; it includes 4 of the top 13 teams plus the favorite to win it all, Kentucky at 4/1 odds.
- The lowest 1-seed, Arizona, has the 8th best odds of winning it all at 18/1.
- A 10-seed, Tennessee, has better odds to win it all (33/1) than the 1st 4-seed Connecticut (40/1).
If Lunardi’s bracket turns out to be accurate then there are a number of bad future bets to avoid. Below are teams whose odds are not long enough given the history of their projected seed.
Baylor, 8-seed, 50/1 odds
- Only one 8-seed, Villanova (1985), has won it all.
Gonzaga, 9-seed, 50/1 odds
- Wichita State is the only 9-seed to reach the Final Four (2013).
Tennessee, 10th seed, 33/1 odds
- Seven 10-seeds have reached the Elite Eight, most recent Davidson (2008).
Cincinnati, 11-seed, 100/1
- Three 11-seeds have reached the Final Four but have never won it all.
Iowa State, 12-seed, 100/1
- The furthest a 12-seed has gone is the Elite Eight, Missouri (2002).
Below are the most recent odds, courtesy of Bovada.lv, and each teams projected seeds according to Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology.