Week 8 College Football Free Pick - Wake Forest at Georgia Tech

By Frank Brank @realfrankbrank


CFB Free Pick: Wake Forest +6.5 at Georgia Tech (Covers 54.4%)


Wake Forest comes into Georgia Tech coming off two losses and their bye week. However, those two losses were against Florida State and Clemson in which they were entirely overmatched underdogs. In their other four games, the Demon Deacons showed off three blowouts against similarly strength opponents.

The Yellow Jackets enter this week's favorable match up against the Deacons after a heartbreaking loss against Miami in which they gave up two late scores to lose 25-24. In fact, both of Tech's losses were at the buzzer including the overtime loss to Tennessee.

The Georgia Tech triple option, heavy run game will not be too foreign to Wake Forest's defense even though they haven't played one another in seven years. Their own offense has rushed the ball more than 60% of the time this season.

In a football world where throwing the ball is king, the Deacons have found a way to be extremely efficient with a rush-heavy attack. Senior quaterback, John Wolford, has only thrown one interception while completing 63.2% of his passes, and Wake has lost one fumble in their first six games.

With both these teams abilities to run the ball and control the clock, separating from a large margin will be difficult and unlikely, especially considering turnovers will be tough to come by for the Yellow Jackets. Wake's defense has also been underrated to this point. They've created 1.5 turnovers per game while only allowing 3.5 yards per rush thus far, Tech's main object for attack.

With how few possessions this game may hold, it will be difficult to exceed a 6.5-point margin. According to 50,000 games played by our simulation engine at PredictionMachine.com, Wake Forest beats Georgia Tech just 35.7% of the time with an average margin of victory of 3.8 points. As a 6.5-point underdog, Wake covers the spread 54.4% of the time, which would justify a $21 wager for an average $50 bettor.