BCS Update (11/19/13)

By Paul Bessire

Tuesday, November 19 at 6:00 PM ET

With little changing in the numbers after a week in which only Baylor out of the undefeated BCS-AQ teams had less than a 98.5% chance to win, we'll get right to the updated numbers. 

To see how we do this and how the numbers have changed from last week, check out Undefeated Odds (11/11).

College Football’s Undefeateds:

There are currently four undefeated teams in BCS-AQ – Alabama, Baylor, Florida State and Ohio State. Those four undefeated teams have 12 remaining regular season games combined and could play in three conference championship games (the Big 12 does not have a conference championship game). In all of those games, the current undefeated team is favored to win in our projections at least 60% of the time (Baylor at Oklahoma State and Ohio State in the B1G Championship are the closest remaining games of those teams). Here are the chances that each current undefeated FBS team wins all of its remaining regular season (and conference championship) games:

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current Power Rank: 1
Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 41
Undefeated Chances: 66.2%
Closest Remaining Game: @ Auburn (Nov 30)
Teams that would be favored over Alabama on a neutral field: None
Estimated Chances of Going 13-0 and Playing in BCS Title Game: 66.2% (if Alabama wins out, the Tide should be in)

Florida State Seminoles

Current Power Rank: 3
Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 57
Undefeated Chances: 68.7%
Closest Remaining Game: @ Florida (Nov 30) 
Teams that would be favored over Florida State on a neutral field: Alabama 
Estimated Chances of Going 13-0 and Playing in BCS Title Game: 68.7% (if Florida State wins out, the Seminoles should be in)

Baylor Bears

Current Power Rank: 2
Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 84
Undefeated Chances: 42.5%
Closest Remaining Game: at Oklahoma State (November 23)
Teams that would be favored over Baylor on a neutral field: Oregon, Alabama, Florida State
Estimated Chances of Going 12-0 and Playing in BCS Title Game: 23.2% (if Baylor wins out and either Alabama or Florida State loses, Baylor should be in) ... If Baylor needs two of Alabama, FSU and Ohio State to lose to get in, it only has an 11.9% chance

Ohio State Buckeyes 

Current Power Rank: 5
Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 71
Undefeated Chances: 48.7%
Closest Remaining Game: B1G Championship Game
Teams that would be favored over Ohio State on a neutral field: Oregon, Alabama, Florida State, Texas A&M, Baylor 
Estimated Chances of Going 13-0 and Playing in BCS Title Game: 19.4% (if Ohio State wins out and two of Alabama, Florida State and Baylor lose, OSU should be in) ... If Ohio State just needs Alabama or Florida State to lose to get in, it has a 27.4% chance

A few notes on the undefeated odds above:

  • Chances Alabama, Florida State, Baylor and Ohio State are undefeated on December 8: 9.4% 
  • Chances that Alabama, Baylor, Ohio State and Florida State all have at least one loss on December 8: 3.0% 
  • Chances that three teams from Alabama, Baylor, Ohio State and Florida State are all undefeated on December 8: 42.8%
  • Estimated chances of a one-loss team in the BCS Championship Game: 23.5%

Most Likely BCS Championship Game:

Alabama vs. Florida State
Chances of this BCS Championship Game: 45.5%
Simulated Result: Alabama wins 51% of the time
Projected Score: Alabama 26 - Florida State 25