ACC Tourney (03/07/16)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
North Carolina is the top seed but the Tar Heels won't win the ACC tournament.

Conference tournaments are the unofficial start of March Madness. The NCAA awards 32 automatic bids to the Big Dance and 31 of those (the Ivy League does not hold a tournament) will be determined through each conference's tournament.

With automatic bids at stake, we have simulated each conference tournament using our Bracket Simulator to predict which teams will punch their ticket to March Madness. The Bracket Simulator is a free tool that gives you the power to simulate the postseason for any sport. Create your own bracket now! has been very profitable in conference tournaments. All-time on the site, "normal" or better conference tournament picks are 113-84-1 (57% ATS and O/U), through 2015. For access to conference tournament picks, click here.

When: March 8-12

Where: Washington D.C.

The automatic bid goes to: Virginia (35.9%)

The Cavs are clicking on all cylinders. UVA has won ten of their last 12 games including topping the No. 1 seeded Tar Heels. Tony Bennett's squad is led by ACC Player of the Year Malcolm Brogdon who is averaging 18.4 points, 4.2 rebounds and 2.8 assists. Virginia is the only team in the country that is top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

And if they lose: Miami FL (28.3%)

Miami is the Top 5 team that no one is talking about. Don't let last Saturday's loss to Virginia Tech fool you. The Hurricanes are for real. Before the disappointing loss to end the regular season, Miami had beat Virginia, Louisville and Notre Dame in consecutive games. The Canes sport one of the most efficienct offenses in the country with four players averaging double-digit points.

Bid Thief

Duke Blue Devils: Do you ever want to bet against Coach K? The defending NCAA champions are only the fifth seed in this year's tournament but with the most ACC Tournament titles, the Dukies are always a threat.

Odds to win the ACC Tournament (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament)

Seed Team Tournament Win%
2 Virginia Cavaliers 35.9
3 Miami (FL) Hurricanes 28.3
1 North Carolina Tar Heels 28.0
5 Duke Blue Devils 5.5
8 Pittsburgh Panthers 0.7
11 Florida State Seminoles 0.4
9 Syracuse Orange 0.4
10 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 0.2
6 Virginia Tech Hokies 0.2
7 Clemson Tigers 0.2
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 0.2
12 North Carolina State Wolfpack 0.1
14 Boston College Eagles 0.0
13 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 0.0