3 Up 3 Down (College Week 9)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
College Football Review – Week 9



A review of the week that was with a look at three college football teams that stood out for good reasons and three whose weekends did not turn out as successfully as anticipated.

Three Up

Miami Hurricanes
2015 Record: Straight-Up 5-3, Against-the-Spread 5-3

With six seconds to play, Duke's Thomas Sirk appeared to score the game-winning touchdown on a quarterback sneak. The Blue Devils led 27-24 and were 97 percent likely to win pending what should have been a routine kickoff.

Eight laterals later, Miami pulled off the upset with one of the most improbable plays you will ever see.



A week after firing Al Golden, the Hurricanes bounced back to give interim Head Coach Larry Scott his first win. Of course, there was controversy. It appeared that a Miami player was down by contact before one of the laterals and there was a questionable block in the back, but after review the play stood.

Next Up: Virginia

Trends
The total has gone over in four of Miami's last five home games against Virginia.
Virginia has lost its last five road games.

Florida State Seminoles
2015 Record: Straight-Up 7-1, Against-the-Spread 4-3

The Noles were without their starting quarterback (Everett Golson) and Heisman hopeful running back (Dalvin Cook) but it didn't matter. Florida State straight stiff-armed Syracuse.



The Seminoles racked up 45 points (tied a season high) and 575 total yards of offense, second highest this year, in the blowout. Florida State was never less than 99 percent likely to win for the entire second half.

Next Up: Clemson

Trends
The total has gone over in four of FSU's last five road games against Clemson.
Clemson is 1-4 straight-up in its last five games when playing Florida State.

Oklahoma State Cowboys
2015 Record: Straight-Up 8-0, Against-the-Spread 4-3-1

Oklahoma State stays undefeated by topping Texas Tech 70-53. The Cowboys trailed by ten points at halftime and were less than 25 percent likely to win before rallying in the second half to stay perfect.

J.W. Walsh found James Washington for two long scores in the fourth including a 73 yarder to seal the game (increased Oklahoma State's expected win probability by 28 percent).

Oklahoma State and Texas Tech combined for 123 points, tied for the fourth highest scoring regulation game in the last ten years. The Cowboys finished with 662 total yards and scored 42 second half points.

Next Up: TCU

Trends
Oklahoma State is 2-4 against-the-spread in its last six home games.
The total has gone over in seven of TCU's last ten games on the road.

Three Down



Temple Owls
2015 Record: Straight-Up 7-1, Against-the-Spread 6-2

The Owls took a 20-17 leads with 4:45 to play and became 61 percent likely to win. The biggest game in Temple's history looked to become the program's best win. Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer had other ideas.

Kizer connected with Will Fuller on a 17-yard touchdown pass with 2:09 to play. Irish corner KeiVarae Russell picked off Temple's quarterback a few players later to seal the game for Notre Dame.



Temple is now 7-1 and remains undefeated in AAC play. A bid to a New Year's Six bowl remains possible but any hope of crashing the playoff is gone.

Next Up: SMU

Trends
Temple has won five straight road games.
Southern Methodist is 3-8 against-the-spread in its last 11 games at home.

Washington State Cougars
2015 Record: Straight-Up 5-3, Against-the-Spread 6-2

Wazzu's kicker Erik Powell made his first five field goals against Stanford. When Washington State needed one more, Powell couldn't come through.

As time expired, Powell missed a 43-yard field goal attempt wide right.



The win would have made the Cougars bowl eligible and would have been the programs first win over a top-eight team as an unranked squad since 1992. Instead the 30-28 win kept Stanford perfect in Pac-12 play and keeps the Cardinal on track for a conference championship.

Next Up: Arizona State

Trends
Washington State is 2-6 against-the-spread in its last eight home games.
The total has gone under in four of Arizona State's last six roads at Wazzu.

Ohio State Buckeyes
2015 Record: Straight-Up 8-0, Against-the-Spread 3-5

The defending champs were off this week but still made headlines. The quarterback situation that everyone thought was settled is in flux again. J.T. Barrett was suspended for a game after receiving a citation for operating a vehicle while impaired.

Cardale Jones will now get the start when Ohio State comes out of its bye week against Minnesota. If Jones, who led the Buckeyes to the title in last year's playoff, produces like he did in the postseason against the Gophers, Urban Meyer will have to reevaluate his options at quarterback once again.

With the most daunting part of the schedule to come, Michigan State and Michigan, uncertainty at quarterback is the last thing the Buckeyes needed.

Next Up: Minnesota

Trends
Ohio State has won five straight against Minnesota.
Minnesota is 2-5 against-the-spread in its last seven games.