3 Up 3 Down (College Week 6)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
College Football Review – Week 6



A review of the week that was with a look at three college football teams that stood out for good reasons and three whose weekends did not turn out as successfully as anticipated.

Three Up

Michigan Wolverines
2015 Record: Straight-Up 5-1, Against-the-Spread 4-2

Northwestern was yielding an FBS best seven points per game but gave that up in the first 13 seconds when Michigan's Jehu Chesson returned the opening kickoff 96 yards for a touchdown.



The Wolverines became better than 90 percent likely to win after the kick return for a touchdown and never looked back. Jim Harbaugh's squad rolled Northwestern 38-0. Michigan has now won five straight games and pitched three straight shutouts (first FBS team in 20 years to accomplish that feat).

Since a season-opening loss to Utah, the Wolverines have only allowed 14 points and have outscored its last three opponents 97-0. A showdown with rival Michigan State looms next week.

Next Up: Michigan State

Trends
Michigan is 1-6 straight-up in its last seven games against Michigan State.
The total has gone under in five of the last six Michigan vs. Michigan State games.

Texas Longhorns
2015 Record: Straight-Up 2-4, Against-the-Spread 2-3-1

The Longhorns entered the Red River Showdown as one of the biggest underdogs (17 points) in the storied history of the rivalry. Despite being left for dead, Texas stunned Oklahoma 24-17 Saturday. Texas totaled 313 rushing yards and six sacks in the victory.


This was Texas' first win against a top ten team since 2010. For the effort, Charlie Strong not only gets to keep his job but he also gets to wear a gold cowboy hat.



Texas is now 6-2 when unranked and facing a ranked Oklahoma squad. After a rough season, every Longhorns fan should enjoy this win.



Next Up: Kansas State

Trends
Texas is 3-6-1 against-the-spread in its last ten home games.
Since 2011, Kansas State is 15-8 ATS on the road.

TCU Horned Frogs
2015 Record: Straight-Up 6-0, Against-the-Spread 2-4

The Frogs trailed Kansas State 35-17 at the half (14 percent chance to win) but rallied to keep their playoff hopes alive. Heisman hopeful Trevone Boykin threw for 301 yards and two touchdowns adding 124 yards and two more scores on the ground.

The biggest play of the game was a 55-yard touchdown pass from Boykin to Josh Doctson with 1:10 remaining that gave TCU the lead for good. The long touchdown pass increased the Frogs' expected win probability by 23 percent.



Next Up: TCU

Trends
TCU is 1-5 against-the-spread in its last six road games.
Iowa State is 2-4 against-the-spread in its last six games when playing TCU.

Three Down



Georgia Bulldogs
2015 Record: Straight-Up 4-2, Against-the-Spread 2-4

Georgia blew a 21-point lead and a 98 percent win probability. The Bulldogs allowed 430 total yards and five touchdowns to Tennessee in the 38-31 defeat. Mark Richt's team had a chance to tie the game late but Reggie Davis dropped a potential 56-yard touchdown.



To top it all off, the Bulldogs lost star running back Nick Chubb on the team's first offensive play. Note: the following gif is rough to watch.



Next Up: Missouri

Trends
Georgia is 4-1 straight-up in its last five home games.
The total has gone under in each of Missouri's last five games.

USC Trojans
2015 Record: Straight-Up 3-2, Against-the-Spread 3-2

The one-time favorites to win the Pac-12, USC was upset at home by Washington (17 point underdogs). The Trojans' high powered offense was held in check. Cody Kessler threw two interceptions and totaled just 156 passing yards.

The loss, the second of the season for USC, to unranked Washington is considered unacceptable for a team that had national title hopes. So of course speculation has Chip Kelly, who is also having a rough season for the Eagles, coaching the Trojans next season.



Kelly was widely considered one of the best coaches in college when he was at Oregon, if he decided to come back to the collegiate ranks USC would have stiff competition for his services.

Next Up: Notre Dame

Trends
USC is 5-1 straight-up in its last six games on the road against Notre Dame.
The total has gone over in five of Notre Dame's last seven games at home.

Oregon Ducks
2015 Record: Straight-Up 3-3, Against-the-Spread 2-4

Washington State upset Oregon 45-38 in double overtime. We could talk about the Ducks falling as 17 point favorites to a team it had beat eight straight times or how Oregon's program is in disarray but the real takeaway from this game is if you are going to talk smack, you have to back it up.

Before the game, Oregon's mascot, Puddles, trolled Washington State mascot, Butch T. Cougar with a few Oregon Trail jokes. After upsetting the Ducks, Wazzu was the last ones laughing.



Next Up: Washington

Trends
The total has gone under in four of Oregon's last six games at Washington.
The total has gone under in four of Washington's last five home games.