3 Up 3 Down (College Week 12)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
College Football Review – Week 12



A review of the week that was with a look at three college football teams that stood out for good reasons and three whose weekends did not turn out as successfully as anticipated.

Three Up

Michigan State Spartans
2015 Record: Straight-Up 10-1, Against-the-Spread 4-7

Michigan State ended Ohio State's 23-game winning streak and probably knocked the Buckeyes out of the College Football Playoff with a last-second field goal. Spartans' kicker Michael Geiger booted a 41-yard field goal as time expired to hand Urban Meyer his first regular-season Big Ten loss.


Upsets are nothing new for Sparty. The last six times Michigan State has been an underdog they have won outright five times, twice against Ohio State.

Next Up: Penn State

Trends
Michigan State is 27-7 straight-up in the last five years at home.
Penn State is 2-4 against-the-spread in its last six games when playing Michigan State.

Oklahoma Sooners
2015 Record: Straight-Up 10-1, Against-the-Spread 8-3

Sooners hang on! Oklahoma stopped TCU's would-be game-winning two-point attempt with less than a minute to play. The Frogs failed conversion gave OU a 30-29 victory.

Some people didn't agree with TCU head coach Gary Patterson's decision to go for the win.

The Sooners defense, after allowing 16 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, got a stop when it counted. Oklahoma is still alive for a playoff berth.

Next Up: Oklahoma State

Trends
Oklahoma State is 3-7 against-the-spread in its last ten games against Oklahoma.
Oklahoma is 7-3 against-the-spread in its last ten games against Big 12 opponents.

UCLA Bruins
2015 Record: Straight-Up 8-3, Against-the-Spread 5-5-1

UCLA went on the road to upset Utah 17-9. Josh Rosen threw for 220 yards and a touchdown as the Bruins ended the Utes Pac-12 title hopes. The win sets up a winner-take-all game with cross-town rival USC for a ticket to the conference title game next Saturday.

UCLA hasn't won the Pac-12 title since 1998 but next week's showdown looks promising as USC might not be on top of its game.

Next Up: USC

Trends
UCLA is 3-1 against-the-spread in the last four tilts against USC.
USC is 3-6-1 against-the-spread in its last ten games against Pac-12 teams.

Three Down



Oklahoma State Cowboys
2015 Record: Straight-Up 10-1, Against-the-Spread 5-5-1

And just like that, Oklahoma State's perfect season is over. Baylor waltzed into Stillwater to beat the previously undefeated Cowboys 45-35. Oklahoma State's defense, 39th in the country, was no answer for Baylor's up-tempo offense.

Even with a third string quarterback, Baylor was able to accumulate 700 yards of total offense. Chris Johnson, the backup to the backup, threw two touchdowns and ran for another score.

Chaos in the Big 12 has once again put the conference's playoff hopes in doubt. The Cowboys will likely be on the outside looking in when the College Football Playoff selection committee meets next. If Oklahoma State upends Oklahoma next week in Bedlam, the Big 12 might be left out of the four-team playoff, again.

Next Up: Oklahoma

Trends
The total has gone over in five of Oklahoma's last six games.
Oklahoma State is 3-1 against-the-spread in its last four games against Oklahoma.

Houston Cougars
2015 Record: Straight-Up 10-1, Against-the-Spread 6-5

UConn beat an undefeated ranked team for the first time ever. The Huskies became bowl eligible with a 20-17 upset win over Houston. The Cougars, ten point favorites, saw their perfect season come to an end when quarterback Greg Ward Jr. threw an interception with less than a minute to play. The turnover increased the Huskies expected win probability by 48 percent.

UConn held Houston to 318 yards of offense, the Cougars were averaging more than 500 yards per game. The loss likely cost Houston its chance at a New Year's Six bowl.

Next Up: Navy

Trends
Houston is 7-3 against-the-spread in its last ten games.
Navy is 7-3 against-the-spread in its last ten games.

Kansas Jayhawks
2015 Record: Straight-Up 0-11, Against-the-Spread 3-8

The Jayhawks got crushed 49-0 by West Virginia Saturday at home. Losing is nothing new, Kansas has dropped 14 straight games. The first quarter summary pretty much says it all.

A loss next week to instate rival (I use that term loosely) Kansas State will preserve the goose egg for the season. However, a theory from social media thinks the Jayhawks are deploying the old rope-a-dope strategy.

Next Up: Kansas State

Trends
Kansas is 2-8 against-the-spread in its last ten games.
Kansas State is 12-8 against-the-spread in the Wildcats last twenty Big 12 games.