3 Up 3 Down (College Week 11)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
College Football Review – Week 11



A review of the week that was with a look at three college football teams that stood out for good reasons and three whose weekends did not turn out as successfully as anticipated.

Three Up

Oklahoma Sooners
2015 Record: Straight-Up 9-1, Against-the-Spread 8-2

The Sooners knocked the Bears from the ranks of the unbeaten with a 44-34 road victory in Waco. Sterling Shepard caught 13 balls for 177 yards and three touchdowns including an amazing effort to hit the pylon for a score.



Baker Mayfield helped Oklahoma ended Baylor's 20-game home winning streak by throwing for 270 yards, three touchdowns and running for another.



All of Bob Stoops' stars shined. Samaje Perine had a 55-yard touchdown run that put the Sooners up by two scores and made Oklahoma 90 percent likely to win.



The Sooners control their own destiny in the Big 12 but not their fate in the race for the College Football Playoff.

Next Up: TCU

Trends
Oklahoma has covered five straight games against-the-spread.
TCU is 9-1 against-the-spread in its last ten home games.

Alabama Crimson Tide
2015 Record: Straight-Up 9-1, Against-the-Spread 5-5

Once again Alabama's defense proved it's the best. The Crimson Tide sacked Mississippi State's Dak Prescott nine times and held the Heisman hopeful to no touchdowns in a 31-6 win. Not to be outdone, running back Derrick Henry ran for 204 yards and two touchdowns. The first was a 74-yard streak up the middle of the field that made Bama greater than 98 percent likely to win.


Nick Saban's team doesn't just have its eye on the playoffs but also the top seed in the College Football Playoff.

Next Up: Charleston Southern

Trends
Alabama is 1-5 against-the-spread in its last six home games.
Charleston Southern is 1-4 against-the-spread in its last five road games.

Houston Cougars
2015 Record: Straight-Up 10-0, Against-the-Spread 6-4

The undefeated Cougs had to rally from a 20-point fourth quarter deficit to stay perfect. Houston had less than a one percent chance to stay unbeaten needing three scores to comeback in the game's final period. Sophomore quarterback Kyle Postma, filling in for injured starter Greg Ward Jr., led the Cougars to the 35-34 win over ranked Memphis.


Houston's improbable win puts them one step closer to clinching the American Conference and possibly an even more unlikely appearance in the four-team playoff.

Next Up: UConn

Trends
UConn is 2-8 against-the-spread in its last ten home games.
Houston is 21-7 against-the-spread on the road over the last five years.

Three Down



Stanford Cardinals
2015 Record: Straight-Up 8-2,, Against-the-Spread 7-3

Oregon needed a stop on a two-point conversion with ten seconds left to ensure its' 38-36 upset bid of Stanford. The Ducks defense came through in the end and the Cardinal are left wondering what might have been. The loss, while it doesn't spell doom for a Pac-12 title, likely ends any hope for a College Football Playoff bid.

Cardinal receiver Devon Cajuste had one of the best touchdown catches of the year that never counted.



The play that almost was could have changed the outcome of the matchup and possibly the Pac-12's chance at getting a seat at the playoff table. However, with Stanford's second loss (and Utah falling flat at Arizona) the conference just got knocked out of the College Football Playoff – like Ronda Rousey.



Next Up: Cal

Trends
Stanford is 2-5 against-the-spread in its last seven games at home against Cal.
The total has gone under in five of Cal's last six road games.

LSU Tigers
2015 Record: Straight-Up 7-3, Against-the-Spread 5-5

For the second week in a row, Leonard Fournette was outshined by an opposing running back. Arkansas' Alex Collins carried the rock for 141 yards and two touchdowns. The Razorbacks scored three times on plays of longer than 50 yards in the 31-14 upset of LSU.

LSU's loss, plus Alabama's win, eliminates the Tigers from the SEC West race. Just two weeks ago Les Miles' team had a perfect record and was ranked by the College Football Playoff committee.

Under Les Miles, LSU is 27-3 straight-up in the week following a loss. All three defeats have been to Arkansas.

Next Up: Ole Miss

Trends
In the last five years, LSU has only lost two straight twice, in the next game they covered the spread both times.
Ole Miss is 2-5 against-the-spread in its last seven road games.

Kansas Jayhawks
2015 Record: Straight-Up 0-10, Against-the-Spread 3-7

The Jayhawks gave TCU a scare. KU was tied with the Horned Frogs at the half after star quarterback Trevone Boykin was injured. It was the first time all year that Kansas had not trailed after two quarters and the first time the score heading into the second half was closer than ten points.

Still, KU fell to TCU 23-17. The Jayhawks were never greater than five percent likely to win. Kansas is now 0-10 on the season. The program has lost 13 straight and now 35 in a row on the road. This is now the second time the Jayhawks have lost ten straight games to start a season.

Next Up: WVU

Trends
KU actually has a winning record (14-12) against-the-spread at home in the last five years.
WVU is just 1-5 against-the-spread in its last six road games.