Top MLB Offenses (03/29/16)

By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Who has the best offense in baseball?

We are less than a week away from the first pitch of the 2016 MLB season. After looking at the Playoff Probabilities, Team Over/Under season win totals and World Series Future Picks, we rank the top ten offenses in baseball.

The offensive rankings are ballpark adjusted and relative to the league based on our strength-of-schedule-adjusted statistics and current rosters. So while Coors Field is a great hitters' park, when we account for the ballpark being friendly to batters, the Rockies offense, at least this year, is near the bottom of the league.

10. St. Louis Cardinals

The Birds on the Bat won the NL Central last year in spite of its offense. St. Louis was 24th in the majors in runs scored. Matt Holiday and Yadier Molina are not the players they once were, but a healthy season from the Cardinals stars would make them effective contributors. Matt Carpenter is a great leadoff hitter with power and a trio of young outfielders (Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk and Tommy Pham) with a potential breakout season from Kolten Wong at second base could be enough to see St. Louis top the favored Cubs in the NL Central.

9. Chicago White Sox

Look for the White Sox's offense to bounce back this season. After finishing 2015 with the fewest runs scored in the American League (3.84 per game), Chicago went out and added some bats. Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie, as well as Austin Jackson and Jimmy Rollins, are nice additions that bolster a lineup featuring Jose Abreu and Adam Eaton.

8. Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh has arguably the most talented outfield in baseball. Andrew McCutchen is a five-time All-Star, Starling Marte is a younger version of McCutchen with power and speed and Gregory Polanco has shown flashes of star potential. The outfield is the foundation of the offense that will try to keep the Pirates competitive with the Cubs and Cardinals in the NL Central.

7. Detroit Tigers

Miguel Cabrera won his fourth AL batting title last year. The offense still runs through the two-time MVP but Cabrera doesn't have to shoulder the load himself. Ian Kinsler is a solid top of the order hitter, J.D. Martinez has blasted 61 homers in the last two seasons and third basemen Nick Castellanos is primed for a breakout season. Adding Justin Upton to the lineup gives the Tigers one of the best offenses in the American League.

6. San Francisco Giants

The lineup in the Bay Area is deep. Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Joe Panik, Brandon Belt and Matt Duffy create a scary lineup for any opposing pitcher. The Giants are going to hit and score runs. San Francisco led the NL in batting average, on-base percentage and was fifth in runs scored per game last year. Plus it is an #EvenYear, which means San Francisco is going to the World Series, right?

5. Los Angeles Dodgers

Injuries (Yasmani Grandal, Howie Kendrick) and poor play (Yasiel Puig) derailed the Dodgers offense in the postseason. Fewer trips to the disabled list, the return to form from the top players in the lineup and a full season from super prospect Corey Seager should have the offense for the Boys in Blue humming and back in the playoffs for a fourth straight time.

4. Chicago Cubs

The Loveable Losers are now World Series favorites. An offense that finished last year sixth in the NL in runs scored and OPS is expected to improve. Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant are proven All-Stars. Kyle Schwarber brings power to the lineup at a premium position. Chicago added Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist, two of the biggest offseason acquisitions, to fill the few holes in the lineup that they had. The Cubbies will compete to be not only be the top offense in the NL but in all of the big leagues.

3. Houston Astros

Carlos Correa has legit 30/30 potential. The youthful super-duper star will be the heart of the Astros lineup for years to come. Around Correa is Mighty Mouse (Jose Altuve) at the top of the order and Carlos Gomez and George Springer pump up the lineup with power and speed. There is a lot to like in Houston.

2. New York Mets

The Mets became the first team in MLB history to reach the World Series last year after ranking last in the league in runs scored on July 31. In the second half, only the Blue Jays and Rangers scored more runs than New York. The transition coincided with the addition of Yoenis Cespedes at the trade deadline. With the stud outfielder back, healthy seasons from David Wright (back) and Travis d'Arnaud (elbow), and Michael Conforto taking a step forward, there is reason to believe that the offense we saw down the stretch is here to stay.

1. Toronto Blue Jays

Was there really any doubt that the Blue Jays would be at the top of this list? Toronto scored 127 more runs than any other team in baseball last year. Troy Tulowitzki, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion…enough said. Even with a suspect pitching staff, the offense is so good that the Jays have the fourth best odds to win the World Series in the American League.

Ranking every Offense in Baseball

Team Offense Rank
Toronto Blue Jays 1
New York Mets 2
Houston Astros 3
Chicago Cubs 4
Los Angeles Dodgers 5
San Francisco Giants 6
Detroit Tigers 7
Pittsburgh Pirates 8
Chicago White Sox 9
St. Louis Cardinals 10
Washington Nationals 11
Seattle Mariners 12
Los Angeles Angels 13
Kansas City Royals 14
Baltimore Orioles 15
Minnesota Twins 16
Texas Rangers 17
Tampa Bay Rays 18
Arizona Diamondbacks 19
New York Yankees 20
Boston Red Sox 21
Miami Marlins 22
Cleveland Indians 23
San Diego Padres 24
Milwaukee Brewers 25
Oakland Athletics 26
Atlanta Braves 27
Philadelphia Phillies 28
Cincinnati Reds 29
Colorado Rockies 30